New census projections suggest several US states could see major demographic shifts over the next few decades, with white populations projected to fall below 50% in a growing number of regions by 2050.
According to projections reported by the New York Post, the changes are expected to be fueled by a combination of international migration, domestic population movement and declining birth rates among white Americans.
The estimates indicate that the overall white population share in the United States could decline from nearly 80% in 1980 to 47% by 2050.
Which states are projected to change?
The projections suggest that by 2050, several additional states may no longer have white-majority populations.
Those states include New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Arizona, Illinois, Oklahoma and Washington.
The report estimates New York’s white population could decline to 46% by 2050, while New Jersey may fall to 37% and Connecticut to 45%.
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Some states had already crossed below the 50% mark before these new projections.
According to census figures cited by the New York Post, California, Hawaii and New Mexico had non-white-majority populations as early as 2000. By 2020, Maryland, Nevada and Texas had also fallen below that threshold.
California and Texas projected to see sharper declines
The projections point to especially steep demographic shifts in some of the country’s largest states.
California’s white population share, estimated at 35% in 2020, is projected to decline to 23% by 2050, and 20% by 2060. Texas, meanwhile, could drop from 40% in 2020 to 27% by 2050.
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Other states expected to approach or cross the majority non-white threshold by 2060 include Massachusetts, Virginia, Rhode Island, Minnesota and North Carolina.
Despite the broader national trend, some states are projected to remain overwhelmingly white. West Virginia, identified in the projections as the least ethnically diverse state in the country, had a white population of 89% in 2020. That figure is expected to decline only slightly to 86% by 2050.
