IT has been 1978 since a colt has gone back-to-back in winning Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe and DARYZ (3.05) can make history just like Alleged did back in the day.
Trainer Francis Henri-Graffard is a man to generally keep on side and his classic French softly, softly style of training that brings about incremental improvement in horses looks destined to work again for Arc favourite DARYZ (2/1, William Hill).
Daryz improved for the step up to a mile and a half to beat Minnie Hauk by a head in this last year. The rest of the field were miles behind. The ground will be quicker on this occasion but connections are supremely confident and he’s clearly the one to beat.
He wasn’t right at Royal Ascot when third in the Prince of Wales’ Stakes when he was found to be under the weather. Graffard had him reportedly 80-85 per cent fit when he won the Prix Foy as his Arc trial.
He looks poised to run a career-best today and the draw has been kind in stall five. Everything is in place to make history.
For those seeking a bit more each-way value, there are two horses that stand out. Daryz stablemate VARANDIR (12/1, Sky Bet) looks another typical gradual improver for the Graffard team, who could have a very good day outwith the showpiece.
Daryz beats Minnie Hauk to win last year’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe
Daryz and Mickael Barzalona is a warm favourite to double up and win in Paris again this year
He won the Prix Niel when Benvenuto Cellini fluffed his lines and there looks more to come from this progressive three-year-old. He’s also drawn next door to him in stall four and has collateral form with Maltese Cross and is very much in the mould of Daryz last season.
The other horse to note is a three-year-old filly, a generation that have a good Arc record overall, and that is THUNDERING ON (8/1, Paddy Power) of Joseph O’Brien’s.
Pierre Charles-Boudot is a positive booking to replace the sidelined Dylan Browne McMonagle in the saddle. She won an Oaks on the bridle in impressive fashion. That form hasn’t been stood up subsequently and she was a shade underwhelming in the Pretty Polly Stakes when third.
But there were excuses for that effort as the drop to ten furlongs on quicker ground and she was found coughing post-race. She was ridden with supreme confidence by Ryan Moore on her comeback when winning the Group Two Blandford Stakes last month.
This is much tougher but she looks sure to improve on that effort and a kind draw in three and the quicker ground query can be offset today by going back up in trip.
Of the other leading principals, there’s little to knock Maltese Cross and Kalpana. But both look a little too short in the market. Kalpana is the solid one in the race. She had no chance with a three-wide trip when seventh in last season’s Arc but she’s had two hard races at York after winning a gruelling King George and might be vulnerable to less exposed and fresher rivals. She’s come in for support but can be swerved at a general 9/2.
That was the price of Maltese Cross all week but a poor draw and the fact that the British and Irish three-year-old middle-distance colt form simply isn’t working out means he’s now twice the price.
Trainer William Haggas deserves an Arc winner and their connections are different from the usual powerhouses that contest these top races. He’s hardy, versatile and knows how to win but he just might not be good enough. However, he’s out to an each-way price now and makes him more of a betting proposition than he was.
Aidan O’Brien saddles three and put me in quite the curious position with Benvenuto Cellini. In my mind, he just simply isn’t an Arc horse and a Breeders’ Cup one all day long (tipped up in this column months ago at 6/1).
He was good in the Irish Derby when bouncing back from his stalls mishap at Epsom. The Prix Niel defeat can be excused as he was one that was affected by the small Ballydoyle bug. There’s four weeks between now and the Breeders’ Cup. Aidan O’Brien has done this before. Minnie Hauk was second last year and went Stateside as a beaten 6/4 favourite. All hope isn’t lost on that score.
William Haggas is hoping for Arc glory with Maltese Cross who is a general 15/2 chance
Joseph O’Brien will hoping to hit the frame in the Arc with Oaks heroine Thundering On
Personally, I still believe there’s a very good horse in there even if he’s put in the odd flop and the three-year-old home form not the strongest. The third in the King George was a handy effort. This might still be a float up for the US and is the pick of Moore purely on draw grounds alone.
He looks more likely to be an eyecatching fifth or sixth and then off Stateside… I hope. Minnie Hauk has been working back from this since a gut-wrenching last year. Her third in the Yorkshire Oaks behind Kalpana was a step in the right direction. She just simply hasn’t looked the same filly this year as she was in her Classic year but if anyone can get her back to her prime it’s O’Brien.
Diamond Necklace is an exciting three-year-old and was simply awesome at Goodwood. She was beaten in her trial when the trainer admitted he left her a bit too cold in the defeat to Aventure but a draw of 16 is not kind and she’ll need a lot of luck dropped in with stamina to prove. O’Brien’s fairly poor Arc record looks destined to carry on.
The Japanese contingent have their ground for once but don’t appear to have the quality.
ARC 1-2-3: 1) Daryz. 2) Varandir. 3) Thundering On.
Elsewhere on the Arc card at Longchamp, Graffard looks to have legitimate chances in pretty much every race and a through-the-card multiple is a worthwhile fun play.
Graffard’s QUEEN OF THE DAY (15/2, Sky Bet) seems to be a bit forgotten about in the Qatar Prix Marcel Boussac (12.31). She was second in Deauville behind the reopposing Data but the step up to a mile is in her favour and looks capable of hitting the each-way frame.
It’s therefore notable that Graffard runs a filly in the Jean-Luc Lagadere (1.09) in the shape of the highly-regarded AMUSINGLY (4/1, Coral). The half-sister to Frankel was unlucky at Longchamp last month in a Group Two and looks like another typical Graffard improver that can make her mark at the top level.
This will be a tough race with leading French juvenile Avec Toi and National Stakes winner Folsom Blues in opposition but the filly could be up to it and open to the most improvement.
It would be the fairytale story of the season if the £20,000 horse rated 67 at the start of her handicapping career from a 21-horse yard in Galashiels can win the Group One Prix de L’Abbaye.
Trained by Katie Scott in the Scottish Borders, Naana’s Shadow has been a revelation this season but the problem is that she might as well be drawn in Galashiels after being handed stall 14. She’d need to break very swiftly to get near the front.
It seems sacrilege to desert her after following her all season but, like Maltese Cross, it’s a horse you can cheer without having a penny on. The draw may open the door for Graffard to strike once again and SHIRI (5/1, Ladbrokes) could reverse the form from last time with Naana’s Shadow at Longchamp.
Aidan O’Brien steps star filly Precise up to a mile and a quarter in the Prix de l’Opera
French trainer Francis Henri-Graffard has assembled a strong squad for Arc day
Given the first-class ticket on the Graffard train has been bought and paid for, CANKOURA can certainly outrun her odds of 22/1 (Sky Bet) in the Prix de l’Opera (3.50). She was disappointing behind reopposing favourite Aventure last time but has been freshened up for this but has posted some good efforts this season that put her in the each-way mix.
But the main selection in this race is PRECISE 4/1 (Coral), with the much-anticipated step up to ten furlongs materialising at long last. The Irish Guineas and Coronation Stakes winner has been generally holding her form since but three of her last four defeats have been at the hands of the irrepressible Blue Bolt and she’s shaped needing further each time.
That’s still high-class form and with the O’Brien yard in better nick, she can take the scalp on Aventure on ground she’d prefer over the favourite.
The final act of a Group One bonanza of racing in Paris is the Prix de La Foret (4.25) and with plenty of pace on in a race three-year-olds have recently plundered, SAMANGAN (9/4 Paddy Power) can hopefully ensure a day to remember for top target trainer Graffard.
He won the Prix Maurice de Gheest when tipped up in these pages in August at 9/1. That was a career-best and can build upon that here. He was behind a few of these in the Jean Prat and a strongly-run race might see Aidan O’Brien-trained True Love emerge as the main danger instead of Thesecretadversary and Nighttime in a tightly-knit seven-furlong race.
