Malawi opened their AFCON 2027 campaign with a 2-1 win over South Sudan in Lilongwe on 25 September 2026. Next comes Angola away on 6 October, and Egypt are also in Group B. Anyone checking the football odds and upcoming fixtures for this window should remember that Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) qualifying has a long record of undoing the favourites. Here are the results that did it most dramatically, counting down to the biggeast.
Burundi hold Aubameyang’s Gabon (2019)
Gabon needed a win in Bujumbura on 23 March 2019. Cedric Amissi put Burundi ahead in the 75th minute, and an Omar Ngandu own goal brought Gabon level, but the 1-1 draw was enough for the hosts. Burundi reached their first finals. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, then at Arsenal, stayed at home.
Botswana beat Tunisia twice (2012)
Botswana had never played at a finals. They beat Tunisia home and away, and on 26 March 2011 became the first team to qualify for the 2012 tournament. Tunisia, champions only seven years earlier, still went through as runners-up, but Botswana won the five-team group. At the finals they lost all three games, but the qualifying campaign had already made history.
Malawi knock out Uganda (2021)
Uganda needed only a point at Kamuzu Stadium in Blantyre on 29 March 2021. Richard Mbulu headed Malawi in front after 15 minutes, and the Flames defended the lead for the rest of the game. The 1-0 win lifted Malawi above the Cranes into second place behind Burkina Faso. It sent them to their third finals, after 1984 and 2010, where they reached the knockout rounds for the first time.
Guinea’s stoppage-time goal in Abuja (2012)
Nigeria led Guinea 2-1 in Abuja on 8 October 2011 through second-half goals from Victor Obinna and Ikechukwu Uche. Ibrahima Traore equalised in stoppage time. The 2-2 draw meant Nigeria failed to qualify for the first time since 1986. Two of their three wins had come against bottom side Madagascar, and those results did not count in the runners-up table.
South Africa celebrate the wrong result (2012)
That same evening, Bafana Bafana drew 0-0 with Sierra Leone in Mbombela, and the South Africans celebrated as if they had qualified. They had not. The group was settled on head-to-head results, and Niger went through to their first finals despite losing 3-0 in Egypt.
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Cape Verde beat Cameroon (2013)
Cape Verde won the first leg 2-0 in Praia. Cameroon won the return 2-1 in Yaounde, but Fabrice Olinga’s stoppage-time goal came too late. The islanders went through 3-2 on aggregate to their first finals, then reached the quarter-finals. Cameroon, four-time champions at the time, missed a second tournament in a row.
Central African Republic win in Alexandria (2013)
Egypt had gone 38 home qualifiers unbeaten. In June 2012, behind closed doors in Alexandria, the Central African Republic (CAR) won 3-2. Foxi Kethevoama scored in a 1-1 draw in Bangui on 30 June, and CAR went through 4-3 on aggregate.
Holders Nigeria go out (2015)
Nigeria won AFCON 2013 and then failed to qualify to defend it. Congo won 3-2 in Calabar on 6 September 2014, with Thievy Bifouma scoring twice. Needing to beat South Africa in Uyo in the final game, Nigeria drew 2-2. They missed the 2017 finals as well.
Ghana finish bottom without a win (2025)
Four-time champions Ghana finished last in their group with three draws and three defeats. A 1-1 draw in Angola on 15 November 2024, after Jordan Ayew’s free kick had put Ghana ahead, confirmed their first missed finals since 2004. Angola topped that group, and they are the side Malawi face on 6 October.
Egypt finish last as champions (2012)
Egypt won three titles in a row between 2006 and 2010, taking their record total to seven. In qualifying for 2012, they finished bottom of a group containing Niger, South Africa and Sierra Leone. The CAR defeat followed eight months later, and Egypt did not return to the finals until 2017, when they reached the final.
