The opening day of the Premier League season is fast approaching, with a supercomputer backing Arsenal to defend their title in the 2026-27 campaign.
Mikel Arteta’s side ended a 22-year wait to be crowned champions last term, with the Gunners holding off Man City after finishing as runners-up in three successive seasons.
Arteta will look to become just the fourth manager in Premier League history to retain the title, following Sir Alex Ferguson, Jose Mourinho and Pep Guardiola.
According to Opta’s supercomputer, which has conducted 10,000 data-led simulations of the campaign, Arsenal are the overwhelming favourites having been given a 38 per cent chance of lifting the trophy again in May.
By contrast, Liverpool were given a 28.5 per cent chance of retaining the title last year under Arne Slot, with the Reds ultimately finishing down in fifth.
A concern for Arsenal, however, has been highlighted over the back injury sustained by William Saliba with Arsenal’s win percentage dropping from 68.7 to 47.6 per cent in the Premier League when the Frenchman is unavailable.
Arsenal boss Mikel Arteta will look to be just the fourth boss to lead his side to back-to-back Premier League titles
Manchester City are seen as the second most likely team to be crowned champions
Man City are viewed as Arsenal’s most likely challengers again, despite the departure of their legendary manager Pep Guardiola.
Enzo Maresca’s side have been given a 20.5 per cent chance of glory following a summer of change, with Elliot Anderson the headline addition at £116m, although Rodri could follow Bernardo Silva in leaving the club.
Liverpool are third most likely champions at 9.2 per cent, despite new boss Andoni Iraola admitting in pre-season that his side ‘cannot sustain the level we want’ at this time.
The Reds are followed by rivals Manchester United, with Michael Carrick given a 6.2 per cent chance of winning the league.
Despite Aston Villa selling Morgan Rogers for a British transfer record £117million to Chelsea and the departure of Youri Tielemans to Man United, Unai Emery’s side are fifth favourites at 4.8 per cent.
They are narrowly ahead of Chelsea under new boss Xabi Alonso at 4.1 per cent, with the Blues having a clear fixture schedule after missing out on Europe last season.
It is a similar situation at Tottenham, who are seen as having a 2.9 per cent chance of claiming the title under Roberto De Zerbi.
Tottenham have been among the biggest spenders in the transfer market this summer, with Sandro Tonali and Mateus Fernandes among marquee signings at £100m and £85m respectively.
The spend comes with Spurs having recorded back-to-back 17th placed finishes in the top flight, with the Premier League status only confirmed on the final day of last season.
Hull City earned promotion to the top flight via the playoffs, but are seen as favourites to go down
Fulham are viewed as potential surprise strugglers under their new boss Alvaro Arbeloa
At the other end of the table, the three newly promoted sides have unsurprisingly been viewed as the most likely to go straight back down to the Championship.
Hull City, who came up from the play-offs, are deemed the most at risk of relegation at 38.7 per cent.
Ipswich and Coventry follow on 31.2 and 27.9 per cent, respectively.
The three clubs can take heart from Sunderland, who were viewed as the side most likely to finish bottom last season only for the Black Cats to qualify for Europe after a memorable campaign.
Sunderland’s participation in the Europa League and their limited transfer activity this summer could have an impact on their prospects this campaign.
Opta’s supercomputer has the Black Cats as fourth most likely club to be relegated at 25.9 per cent,
It follows Sunderland’s underlying numbers last season, where they had the third lowest open-play expected goals, as well as facing the third-most shots and the fourth-most shots on target in the top flight.
Fulham are the next club at risk at 23.4 per cent, following a summer which has seen Marco Silva leave and be replaced by Alvaro Arbeloa.
Leeds United and Crystal Palace follow at 22.5 and 20 per cent, respectively.
Nottingham Forest and Brentford are next at 18.1 and 16.3, followed by Everton and Bournemouth on 13.6 and 13.1.
