As Arsenal take on Manchester City in a monumental Premier League title clash, there may still be another twist in the tale further down the line
Football finance experts have spoken about the punishment Manchester City could face if they are found guilty of the 115 charges put against them, and the impact it could have on Arsenal.
City and the Premier League continue to await the final verdict on the potential breaches, with some reports suggesting the number of charges could be as high as 130, relating to alleged breaches of financial regulations between 2009 and 2018 — a period during which City won three league titles.
The hearing into City’s alleged breaches of Premier League financial regulations concluded in December 2024 following a 12-week tribunal, yet the independent commission is still to deliver its verdict. City have denied any wrongdoing and are understood to be confident they will be cleared.
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Yet, should City be found guilty, precedent indicates that sporting sanctions would be the main form of punishment. The potential sanctions being discussed range from the stripping of their titles to substantial points deductions severe enough to see the club drop out of the top flight.
In the worst-case outcome for City, they would not only see titles from 2012, 2014 and 2018 stripped away but may also face consequences for future seasons. City are currently locked in a title battle with Arsenal, with Pep Guardiola’s side able to reduce the gap on the Gunners at the top of the table to just three points with a victory in Sunday afternoon’s meeting at the Etihad Stadium.
Even if City win and go on to lift the trophy, there remains a possibility that this success could be affected by the outcome of the case, in the event that it is not pushed further down the road. Arsenal will hope that means City’s final points tally this season will either be reduced or points deductions in the future would essentially rule them out as a rival.
Stefan Borson, a football finance expert, argues that the punishment must be “transformative” if the “disguised equity” charges put against City are proven. While Borson acknowledges stripping titles is a tool available to the commission, he suggests it may be less practical than massive points deductions. He has noted that a “sanction hearing” following a guilty verdict could take months, making retrospective title changes a legal minefield.
Borson said on The Room Where It Happened: “If the worst case for Manchester City is established, I think the independent panel will go for a very large points deduction which will guarantee relegation. That to me seems the most obvious punishment but also the most obvious way to achieve what they will want to achieve from that sanction.
“Because in the worst case scenario for Manchester City, it seems obvious to me that the punishment will be very severe. It seems very unlikely to me that the case that’s set out against Man City is established. But, if it is, the punishment will be severe.”
Football finance expert Kieran Maguire, author of The Price of Football, also believes that a major points deduction, potentially ranging between 40 to 60 points, is more likely than removing previous titles. He believes the Premier League would rather “look forward” than “rewrite history,” as stripping titles creates “ghost champions” and complicates commercial and broadcasting agreements already settled years ago.
He said on The Overlap Fan Debate: “I think you have to add a zero to what we’ve seen from Forest and Everton, so somewhere between a 40 and 60-point deduction would, I think, on merit, be consistent with what we’ve seen from other decisions on logic. If they want to go further then we don’t know the severity.” Maguire expects that a verdict could be delivered in the coming months.
Dr Dan Plumley, who has worked in the sports business sector since 2006, also holds the view that a points deduction and fine would be the most likely punishment should City be found guilty. He added: “If City were to be found guilty, then all of those things would potentially be on the table as sanctions and the Premier League could push for any or a combination of. It is really difficult to predict what any outcome could be as there is no precedent.
“We will always be in the realms of speculation until we know, but if I were to speculate, I would suggest that a points deduction and fine would be most likely, with relegation and title stripping being the extreme, but unlikely, scenarios.”
Premier League chief Richard Masters has remained tight-lipped since the charges were announced. Some interpret this as the league preserving the “title stripping” possibility to pressure the commission towards imposing meaningful punishment, even if they don’t expect it to be the actual outcome.
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