As US President Donald Trump claims Washington is close to ending the Iran war, a shock new report warns the spread of Tehran-sponsored attacks across Europe is escalating – and it could come to UK
The Iran war is ramping up the risk of Tehran-sponsored terror attacks across Europe and all the way to Britain, a fresh security report has warned.
It says the war in Iran could merge into a shadow war fought in the murky world of terror-style attack such as arson and violence on individuals or groups.
The report emerged on day two of a shaky ten-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon and as police swooped on a central London park to examine ‘discarded items’ after a video wrongly claimed the Israeli Embassy had been targeted by drones containing dangerous substances.
Conflict in the Middle East has led to fears Tehran’s shadowy Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps using proxy groups and radical organisations to launch attacks.
They could, the report warns, even use criminal gangs to promote or act out violence against targets in British and other European cities.
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The focus of retaliatory assaults is likely to be US, Jewish and Israeli targets in countries such as the UK, which already suffers a rise in anti-semitism.
Four ambulances belonging to the Jewish Community Ambulance Service were set alight in north London just weeks ago in what police have alleged was an antisemitic attack.
It emerged as police Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear specialist team examined items in London’s Kensington Gardens, close to the Israeli embassy and large parts of the area were closed off to the public. I
n the suspicious video which was circulated a drone can be seen taking off in a park next to a fallen tree trunk. Officers are believed to be taking samples and items from the spot for chemical and forensic testing.
Signs on the park gates read “PARK CLOSED Hazardous conditions – do not enter”. A new report by US-based The Soufan Report, led by former FBI Middle East expert Ali Soufan warns: “The U.S.-Israeli war against Iran is amplifying terrorism risks across Europe and adjacent theaters like Turkey, characterized by state-linked retaliation tactics, proxy actors, and self-radicalised individuals.”
The report explains that the risk of terror-style attacks is increased as they are low-input financially and have a disproportionately higher effect on people.
It warns: “A cluster of recent attacks on Jewish communities and U.S.-linked assets signals an operational shift toward deniable, low-cost operations for the sake of psychological impact. “
Some similar attacks across Europe have used proxy individuals who were contacted and paid hundreds of pounds by Iranian agents. The report continues: “The ongoing war in Iran is a disruptive threat multiplier for Europe’s current terrorism landscape.
“Rather than generating clear-cut, attributable plots, actors affiliated with the Iranian regime are intentionally cultivating an asymmetric grey-zone attack dynamic characterized by ambiguity.”
It means Tehran could create distance between the IRGC and whoever launches attacks, triggering insecurity and undermining society.
It says: “Disparate Iran-affiliated groups, including petty-criminal intermediaries and self-radicalized individuals, have mounted loosely coordinated or independent attacks, generating a cumulative psychological effect.
“The threat currently manifests as a diffuse, cross-border campaign that blurs terrorism, criminality, and statecraft — eviscerating attribution and confounding a coherent law-enforcement response.”
Since US President Donald Trump ’s Operation Epic Fury began incidents across Europe have exposed the growing threat. In Liège on March 9, an explosion hit a synagogue; Rotterdam’s synagogue was burned on March 13; an Amsterdam Jewish school was bombed the next day.
Even though Iran has now opened up the key Strait of Hormuz waterway for the rest of the two week Iran ceasefire, which ends on April 22, there are fears the Israel – Lebanon ceasefire remains fragile.
The report cites other incidents of attacks across Europe including one near the U.S. embassy in Oslo, where a blast occurred on March 8, followed by a foiled Bank of America bombing plot in Paris later that month.
In the latter case, minors were digitally recruited and allegedly paid €500–1,000 for the assault, which appeared amateurish in nature. And the report adds: “During an arson assault on a Jewish medical charity service in London on March 23, four ambulances were torched near Golders Green synagogue.
“This case embodies the prevailing logic of Iran-linked attacks. Even though there were no fatalities, it reflects the symbolism and logic of attacks in the wake of the Iran war: striking Jewish emergency services with minimal risk and makeshift logistics to create psychological insecurity and signal that Jewish targets outside the Middle East will also be included in retaliatory operations.”
Trump has dubbed the Lebanon ceasefire an ‘historic day” for Lebanon whilst claiming the US and Iran are ‘very close’ to making a separate deal to end the war.
