Washington state is set to vote on barring transgender athletes from competing in women’s sports – with activists increasingly confident that the ban will pass.
The state will vote on Initiative 638 on November 3, which, if passed, would ban biological males from competing in girls’ K-12 sports.
It took hundreds of thousands of signatures from across Washington to get the measure on the ballot.
And, despite being an overwhelmingly liberal state, there is optimism among activists that the initiative could pass.
Tentative new local polling has reportedly shown that Washington voters will cast their ballots in favor of passing the ban.
Polling conducted by Let’s Go Washington, a conservative-backed political action committee that advocated for the proposed ban, shows 56 percent of the vote going in favor of the ban in November, according to KUOW.
Washington state is set to vote on barring transgender athletes from competing in women’s sports. Washington Superintendent Chris Reykdal is pictured in 2021
‘People are with us, and they don’t wanna say it out loud,’ Hallie Herzberg, a spokesperson for Let’s Go Washington, told the outlet. ‘They don’t want to be villainized for it. They will support us, and they will stand up for girls, but they will do it in the safety of their own ballot.’
Meanwhile, nationally 66 percent of Americans are said to support policies that force trans athletes to play on sports teams that ‘match their sex at birth,’ according to polling that the Pew Research Center published last year.
Voters trend towards supporting banning trans athletes from competing with cisgender girls after they read the language used to describe the initiative as it will appear on the November ballot, according to Andrew Villeneuve, the founder of Northwest Progressive Institute, which has conducted some additional polling on the matter.
However, Democrats have conducted limited polling on the matter with party spokesperson Stephen Reed telling KUOW that, ‘This is not a slam dunk like some folks think it might be.’
27 states have already passed policies that separate biological males from competing in women’s sports in K-12. However, all of those policies were passed by state legislature rather than the popular vote.
Therefore, should Washington pass the initiative in November, it would become the first state to enact the policy through voter approval, according to Fox News.
Furthermore, it would also become the first state that Donald Trump lost to Kamala Harris in the 2024 election to adopt such a policy.
The President signed an executive order in February 2025 aimed at keeping trans athletes out of girls’ and women’s sports.
Donald Trump signed an executive order in 2025 aimed at keeping trans athletes out of girls’ and women’s sport
Washington outright rejected the order with the state’s Superintendent Chris Reykdal immediately speaking out against the policy.
Reykdal said in a statement that the order tried to force schools to ‘discriminate against trans female athletes’ in exchange for federal funds, and that it sought to ‘restrict transgender girls from participating in girls’ sports with their peers.’
He called the order unlawful, saying it contradicted the Washington Law Against Discrimination and state school rules. He added: ‘Our state law prohibits discrimination on the basis of gender identity, and we will not back down from that.’
Meanwhile, several female athletes have spoken out ahead of the vote with one high school student filing an appeal to the Supreme Court.
Kallie Keeler, a high school girls wrestler, filed for an injunction, seeking that she be allowed to wrestle this season without being matched against a male, or that her mother receive notice so she can opt out without penalty.
Keeler alleges she was sexually assaulted by a male opponent during a girls’ match in December and was not told he was male beforehand.
Public figures such as Riley Gaines campaigned to ban trans athletes from women’s sports
However, Washington’s high school athletics association and the state superintendent have stood firm ahead of November’s vote, saying they will keep letting students compete by gender identity while the SCOTUS application is pending.
The Washington Office of Superintendent of Public Instruction (OSPI), which enforces state law on extracurricular activities, stood by the state’s current, pre-vote policy.
‘While OSPI does not oversee athletics in our state, our office is responsible for communicating, upholding, and enforcing the law, including in student athletics and extracurricular activities,’ the superintendent’s office told OutKick.
‘OSPI will continue to uphold Washington’s current law unless or until the law changes. OSPI does not have any non-privileged statement, board notice, or guidance that we have issued to schools or staff regarding this appeal.’
