International rugby is back with a bang this month and with less than a year to go to the next World Cup, the November matches are hugely significant.
Not only will they decide the final places in the inaugural Nations Championship, they will also form a vital part of the preparation of teams for the 2027 global showpiece in Australia.
Time is of the essence if anyone is going to stop South Africa from becoming the first team to win three straight World Cups. That’s why these games are so important.
In the summer, the first round of the Nations Championship went under the radar because of the FIFA World Cup. I think it’ll be different this time as November is traditionally a big rugby month.
Adding a competition element to that and the summer windows is a big positive for me.
The fact the Nations Championship is on terrestrial television on ITV is also important. To look ahead to all the action, I sat down with my ITV colleague and former fly-half rival Ronan O’Gara…
International rugby is returning this week with the inaugural Nations Championship
Daily Mail Sport’s Dan Biggar sat down with the legendary Ronan O’Gara to discuss the action
England
England’s opener with Australia is a huge, huge game. Win that, and then beat Japan the following week, and England would be on a run of four victories on the trot. That momentum would give them a real shot at beating New Zealand, as they did this time last year. But lose to the Wallabies and all that noise and pressure that came from their worst ever Six Nations will come flooding back.
‘The England-Ireland game left me completely lost as to where England are,’ O’Gara tells me. ‘Never have I seen such a demolition for 80 minutes. Those sorts of days are not easily forgotten or forgiven by the coaches. It’s the same for the public. That could be scarring.’
England won only once in the Six Nations, losing to Italy for the first time. In the summer, they lost to South Africa before beating Fiji and Argentina. The jury remains out on Steve Borthwick’s team.
‘Historically, England are good at performing at World Cups,’ says O’Gara. ‘You can always count on the mentality of their forwards. For England to take the next step, they need to kick with intelligence, as all teams must at Test level.
‘But I think where England don’t push their ceiling high enough is that sometimes they revert to a box kick rather than trusting their instinct to play what’s in front of them. It’s more prescribed rugby, as opposed to instinctive.’
England have a few injury concerns for the clash with Australia, namely No10 Fin Smith. But all teams have fitness issues and England’s strength in depth is very good. They have to beat Australia.
‘There’s been nothing like the defence you see in Test rugby in the PREM this season,’ adds O’Gara. ‘The way the game is going as a whole does favour the attack. But what’s interesting is that in the PREM, a lot of matches – not all, but a lot – are decided by the final 10 minutes.
‘In Test rugby, most are decided in that period. Does that help or hinder England? We’ll find out this month.’
Ronan O’Gara and Dan Biggar with The Debrief presenter Claire Thomas
If England struggle in these games the pressure will ramp up on head coach Steve Borthwick
Ireland
Anyone can see Ireland aren’t the team now they were at the last World Cup. I think they’ve got work to do. But what’s interesting is that before France in 2023, Ireland were No1 and they still didn’t make it past the quarter-finals. Maybe they’re deliberately going under the radar this time!
‘We’re still none the wiser as to who is controlling the team. Is it Sam Prendergast or Jack Crowley?’ says O’Gara, who won 128 caps for Ireland and played on three Lions tours.
‘That’s still an obvious question mark. So is the centre pairing. Bundee Aki, Garry Ringrose, Robbie Henshaw and Stuart McCloskey are all the other side of 30. Experience is important, but you need young, vibrant guys jumping out of their skin to compete. In rugby today, you have to work on the average there will be three or four injuries a game. It’s so brutal now physically.
‘Do Ireland have the depth to go through to a World Cup final if they lose players from their strongest 23? I’m hoping they can. To win a World Cup, the emphasis is always on overall squad depth compared to a starting team.
‘There’s certainly a big drop off at No 9 when you take out Jamison Gibson-Park, but that’s the reality when you’re talking about world-class players.’
Ireland aren’t the team now they were at the last World Cup but will hope to go under the radar
Wales
Wales have a big job to do. This campaign is about continuing to develop. We saw the team evolve well at the end of the Six Nations, so the summer’s Nations Championship games that followed were disappointing.
What is good news for Wales is that their players are in form. Some of the best performers in PREM Rugby this season have been Welsh – the likes of Jac Morgan, Louis Rees-Zammit and Aaron Wainwright. There have been lots of others, too. Morgan has been on fire for Gloucester. He’s so good that I think if he was English, he’d start for them.
The political sideshow over cutting one of Wales’ four domestic teams continues in the background, but there’s no excuse for Wales not to perform. ‘Winning games at club level is so important,’ O’Gara said. ‘Wales haven’t had that historically and their guys have been deprived of all confidence at Test level.
‘No matter how mentally strong you are, you can’t just flick a switch and get that. Winning is a habit.
‘I watched the Gloucester-Bordeaux game in the Champions Cup. The best players on the pitch weren’t French. That bodes well for England as well as Wales.
‘Wins for Wales aren’t measured by victories now. They’re measured by progress and I think their coaching ticket has delivered that. There should be a bounce in their camp.
‘Their non-negotiable has to be beating Japan.’
Wales have endured a difficult period and they need to start winning games to gain confidence
Scotland
‘Scotland are another team that seem to have made massive progress and then they undo so much of their good stuff through a limp performance,’ O’Gara says.
‘Their first game with New Zealand is a very, very difficult one to call. People will fancy the All Blacks but if you put a closer microscope on it, it could be very interesting – especially if Murrayfield is wet.’
Scotland came so close to beating New Zealand this time last year, producing a stirring performance but falling just short as Damian McKenzie scored a crucial try.
Gregor Townsend’s side have consistently delivered against England. But a little bit like Australia, on the whole they’ve been consistently inconsistent. We’ve been saying it for a while now, but that has to change if they are to make a World Cup statement.
Beating the All Blacks would be a good way to begin!
Gregor Townsend’s Scotland side have been consistently inconsistent over recent times
What about the rest?
To me, there are only four or five teams who have a realistic chance of winning the World Cup.
They are South Africa, New Zealand, France, Ireland and possibly England. The global game needs a strong Australia, Argentina and Wales. But those teams aren’t capable of challenging the best right now. It will be fascinating to see what impact my old coach Shaun Edwards has on Argentina.
The All Blacks already look a far better team under Dave Rennie than they did when Scott Robertson was in charge. France’s depth is going to be tested to the absolute maximum with a host of their key players out. The likes of Thomas Ramos, Emmanuel Meafou, Thibaud Flament and Julien Marchand are all injured.
France-South Africa is the pick of the regular matches this autumn and the two could meet again in the Nations Championship final, even if Les Bleus are hit by absentees.
‘France’s locks are big misses and they don’t know who their best tighthead prop is,’ says O’Gara, who has signed a long-term extension with French club side La Rochelle.
‘If the World Cup final was tomorrow, the two favourites would be South Africa and France. France’s issue now is there is a gaping hole in their set-piece. No-one has replaced Uini Atonio.’
Japan and Fiji will be at the bottom of the southern hemisphere table, with that pair likely to take on either one of Wales and Italy on the finals weekend. Italy lost all three of their summer games and have been decimated by injuries, so they are expected to struggle.
South Africa are hoping to become the first team to win three World Cups in a row
Things to watch out for…
‘Rugby is only just scratching the surface when it comes to the importance of the bench,’ O’Gara tells me. ‘Games at Test level now are decided by the replacements. They’re so important.’
South Africa coach Rassie Erasmus almost redefined rugby with his use of the Springbok ‘bomb squad.’ O’Gara says: ‘We have to understand we’re now at a point where coaches have to think about whether they start with their strongest team or finish with it. That’s a reality.
‘Another thing for fans to watch out for is the role of hybrid players – guys that can play as both forwards and backs. Andre Esterhuizen of South Africa is one of those. France have plenty.
‘There are a lot of rumours in France that Louis Bielle-Biarrey could end up at No 10 in the second half of matches instead of on the wing.’
The rise of hybrid players will only lead to the speed of the international game increasing. When you have guys like Henry Pollock, who is a back-row but is as quick as a wing, it really opens things up.
Having a hybrid player allows teams to have six forwards and two backs on the bench. Or even sometimes seven forwards and one back, as Erasmus has done.
The way for teams to score most points these days is against unstructured defence. Those opportunities are rare, so sides have to make the most of them.
If I had to pick out three players to watch, it would be Jordie Barrett of New Zealand, France’s Theo Attissogbe and Fiji flyer Jiuta Wainiqolo. Barrett has X Factor moments, but he’s the glue of the All Blacks. He gets through so much hard work, a lot of the unseen stuff. Watch him live and see. He’s immense. Attissogbe is set to get a run for France with Ramos out. He’s a real livewire running threat.
As for Wainiqolo, just put his name into YouTube, sit back, and enjoy!
New Zealand star Jordie Barrett is one of my three players to watch for the upcoming action
It’s just a game…
If England lose to Australia, the heat on their head coach Borthwick is going to be immense. It will be a big news story in the rugby world. But we also have to place what happens in professional sport in a wider context. When former Sale lock Hyron Andrews passed away suddenly last month, it was a reminder to us all to enjoy Test rugby for what it is – serious, but also entertainment.
Andrews died on the eve of playing for South African side Lions against O’Gara’s La Rochelle. ‘I don’t think what has happened has actually struck me yet,’ O’Gara says of Andrews’ tragic passing.
‘When you’re in that much of a bubble, you’re in denial. I’m the coach and I had to deliver that news to my players. You try to be bulletproof but you’re telling yourself: “Is this really happening?” I woke up the next day and wondered how the game was going to go ahead. I must say, it’s still a haze.
‘We got through the game and had beers with the Lions players in the changing room, but nothing about all that is still clear to me at the minute. It just goes to show me one thing is true – whatever happens in rugby or in life, your health is your wealth.’
Watch Dan Biggar and Ronan O’Gara discuss all the big Nations Championship talking points on The Debrief, in association with Allianz, each Sunday in November, starting this Sunday at 7pm on ITV4, 11.30pm on ITV1 and on ITVX. This week they’re joined by former England head coach Eddie Jones.
