South Africa completed a memorable 2–1 win against Australia at Cape Town over the weekend.
But what does the result mean for England, who visit South Africa in December and host Australia next summer?
Daily Mail Sport examines the key areas that will decide both series.
South Africa wrapped up a memorable Test series victory against Australia on Saturday
Joe Root’s England face both teams over the next nine months, so what can they do to win?
South Africa
England haven’t lost a Test series in South Africa since the turn of the millennium, but they will have to be at their best to protect that record.
Above all, they will have to match the resilience shown by Temba Bavuma’s side during their come-from-behind win against the Australians.
After losing the first Test at Durban, South Africa found themselves 110 for six at Gqeberha, only for Bavuma to score 179, the performance of his life. With Marco Jansen, who recently went top of both the bowling and all-rounder Test rankings, and Simon Harmer both making 80s, the total mushroomed to 425 for nine – enough for an innings win.
At Cape Town, they dragged the game back twice. First, after Australia reached 370 for four in reply to 329. Then, after the South Africans slipped to 181 for five in their second innings, a lead of just 81, at which point Ryan Rickelton and Wiaan Mulder each made a century.
None of their regular top six average 40, but under Bavuma – who has led his side to 13 wins and one defeat in 15 Tests – they have regularly found a way to score runs when they matter. And with Jansen and Harmer at eight and nine, they bat deep.
Their balanced bowling attack poses two questions for England. First, how will Joe Root’s team handle the pace and venom of Kagiso Rabada, who triggered Australia’s demise on Saturday with two wickets in the first over of their chase, and became the quickest in Test history to 350 wickets?
If Anrich Nortje recovers from the groin injury that ruled him out of Cape Town, he will add brute speed, while Jansen’s left-armers, plus the speed of Gerald Coetzee and the under-rated accuracy of Mulder complete a rounded seam attack.
Just as crucially, Harmer’s success in the decider against Australia, when he outbowled Nathan Lyon while taking six for 16 in the second innings (and 10 for 120 in the match), was a reminder that Cape Town turns. And that’s where England play the third Test in the New Year, after the more seam-friendly venues of Centurion and Johannesburg.
Trouble is, England don’t have a world-class Test spinner. And if they need to squeeze in Shoaib Bashir, it will disrupt the balance of the side. It may be the least of their worries.
Temba Bavuma’s side are a formidable and resilient outfit who have threats from all angles
Simon Harmer spun South Africa to victory in Cape Town, but England lack in that regard
Australia
The good news for England ahead of next summer’s Ashes is that Australia look as vulnerable as they have done for years. The bad news is that they have time to put things right. Then again, there is a lot to put right.
Unusually, their decision-making has gone haywire. It beggared belief that they asked Nic Maddinson to open the batting when he hadn’t played a red-ball game for 18 months. And it made no sense to persevere at No 3 with Marnus Labuschagne, who has now gone 49 Test innings without a hundred, a record for a member of Australia’s top four. His Test career, for now at least, is over.
Then there was the decision to drop Scott Boland after he took five wickets at 16 in Gqeberha – not least because he made way for Lyon, who in conditions conducive to spin in Cape Town managed only four for 172.
It might have helped Lyon had Pat Cummins chosen to bat after winning the toss. Instead, he stuck South Africa in, and watched their openers add 158 at five an over – not far off the eventual margin of victory.
It would be wrong to dismiss Australia’s chances of winning a series in England for the first time since 2001. After all, Matt Renshaw averaged 61 in South Africa, almost single-handedly winning the first Test from No 5 and showing versatility by making 74 as opener in the third. Josh Inglis, meanwhile, hit what looked like a crucial century at Cape Town after replacing the injured Steve Smith.
But questions over Smith’s future, and whether Travis Head would be better employed in the middle order rather than as opener, add to the uncertainty over their batting.
Pat Cummins endured a difficult series as captain and with the ball, but is likely to bounce back
There are also questions over Steve Smith’s Test future and Australia’s batting is vulnerable
Australia’s bowling ought to leave England with less room for optimism. Assuming Lyon, who turns 39 this month, doesn’t play a key role next summer, there could be room in the team for Boland, who will have learned from his below-par display in the 2023 Ashes.
Mitchell Starc remains dangerous with the new ball, and Josh Hazlewood helped win the Durban Test with second-innings figures of six for 49. Cummins had a poor series, but champions don’t stay down for long.
For all their obvious flaws, the Australians are hardly going to surrender the Ashes without a fight. England will have to hope that their opponents’ gruelling schedule takes its toll on their ageing attack. Australia host New Zealand for four Tests in December, then travel to India for five early next year. Their exhaustion may be England’s best hope of winning the Ashes for the first time since 2015.
