They cannot feel robbed of major trophies because of Manchester City’s behaviour but Aston Villa have as much reason to be angry with their Premier League rivals as anyone else.
Without City, Villa would likely be enjoying Champions League football at Villa Park for the third straight season. They may have kept Morgan Rogers, Youri Tielemans and Lucas Digne. Marcus Rashford and Marco Asensio might have been there last term, too.
Villa needed a point at Manchester United on May 25, 2025 to reach the Champions League. They produced one of their worst displays of the season and lost 2-0. They were also beaten 2-1 at – you’ve guessed it – City a month earlier when Matheus Nunes scored at the end of stoppage time. Without Nunes’ goal, the result at Old Trafford would not have mattered.
Every club has had their own counter-factual since City were found guilty of breaking multiple Premier League financial rules, against which they have appealed. Though they were charged only for offences between 2009 and 2018, the wealth accumulated during that period helped shape the success that followed. Maybe it also changed the course of Villa’s future.
Villa would have earned about £75million last season had they repeated their march to the Champions League last eight in 2024-25, as opposed to £39m for winning the Europa League. And because 2026-27 would be Villa’s third straight year in Europe’s main club competition as opposed to their second after a one-year gap, their revenues would be even greater.
As Champions League football returns to Villa Park tonight, Daily Mail Sport examines how Villa are still feeling the effects of that near-miss.
Unai Emery has every reason to feel aggrieved with Manchester City after they were found guilty of breaking Premier League financial rules
Villa’s failure to qualify for the Champions League in 2024-25 – when City finished third – forced them to sell players like Ollie Watkins (pictured) this summer
The sliding doors moment
Had Villa qualified for the Champions League in 2025, Rashford was open to rejoining the club on loan for the following campaign.
The England forward was starting to look himself under Villa boss Unai Emery during his initial four-month stint and though there was interest from Barcelona – the club he would eventually join – Rashford was very happy at Villa. It was the same with Asensio, who managed eight goals and an assist in 21 games on loan from Paris Saint-Germain.
Once they were a Europa League club again, there was no realistic chance of landing either player as Villa would never be able to cover their wages.
Yet Villa were effectively punished not once, but twice. Clubs do not feel the financial benefit of being in the Champions League unless they qualify year on year – particularly those of Villa’s size. They cannot generate the revenue of the world’s biggest clubs and so to keep pace with them, they must either over-achieve every year or sell.
If this were Villa’s third straight year in the Champions League, they would be collecting at least £10m more in prize money under UEFA’s ‘value pillar’ system, which rewards consistent qualification.
Rogers moved to Chelsea last summer not because of what Villa did in 2025-26, but because of the previous season. The drop in revenue from Champions League to Europa League meant Villa needed a big sale and a reduced wage bill – otherwise they risked further punishment for breaching UEFA’s squad cost ratio rules.
Tielemans and Digne were among the highest earners and so they went, too. Neither player was pushing to leave but with higher revenue, Villa could have handed Tielemans a new deal and removed the £35m release clause that took him to Manchester United. Digne may have stayed another year, too.
Those two, along with Rogers, were among six starters from last May’s Europa League final victory to leave Villa last summer. None of that would have happened if they had finished fifth, rather than sixth, in 2024-25.
Under different circumstances, Villa would be facing Fenerbahce with an experienced XI, not a side in transition. They may also be playing in front of a full-capacity Villa Park.
Marcus Rashford enjoyed his loan spell at Villa and might have stayed at the club had they not failed to finish in the top five in 2024-25
The likes of Youri Tielemans, Morgan Rogers and Lucas Digne – who all left Villa this summer – may also have stayed put
Teething problems
The gaping hole where the North Stand used to be sums up Villa’s difficulties better than anything.
Villa hope the stand will be rebuilt in time for the start of next season and take Villa Park’s capacity past 50,000. The extra revenue should provide more spending power on the football side.
Yet Villa are struggling to cope in a three-sided ground holding less than 37,000. After the 2-2 draw at Villa Park last Saturday, Brentford boss Keith Andrews said: ‘I hated [playing in a three-sided ground] as a player and it doesn’t generate the same atmosphere. When you come here you feel the history and with one stand missing, it’s a bit different.’
Villa have not won at home this season and though these are early days, the underlying numbers paint a troubling picture. Compared with last season at Villa Park, Villa are taking fewer shots on target, creating fewer big chances and taking fewer touches in the opposition penalty area. At the other end, their ‘expected goals against’ total is higher than last season’s and they are facing more shots.
This cannot be attributed to stadium renovation alone. Losing Ezri Konsa has something to do with it, as does Boubacar Kamara’s sluggish form. It is undoubtedly a factor, though.
When Highbury’s North Bank was rebuilt, Arsenal erected a mural at that end of the ground for the 1992-93 season. The atmosphere was never the same and the Gunners finished 10th.
‘One handicap is having fewer supporters, but at the start of the season it was something the club decided to improve for the future,’ said Emery. ‘No excuses, we must try to get together without 7,000 supporters and play better football.’
The refurbishment of Villa Park’s North Stand is a factor in the club’s poor home form. Had they been in the Champions League for three straight seasons, they might have delayed the project
Emery was always worried about this. In an ideal world, he would not want it but he understands that if Villa meet all UEFA’s financial requirements this season, they will be free from additional restrictions at the end of the campaign.
Former CEO Christian Purslow’s original redevelopment plan was shelved in 2023 as Emery did not want to play European football with a reduced capacity.
Villa’s success since proved him correct – and if they had enjoyed three straight years of Champions League football, perhaps Villa might have risked delaying the redevelopment once more. As Villa officials look at the Manchester City verdict, they will reflect that it would have been nice to have the option.
