Paul Skenes was supposed to be untouchable, destined for a rise in baseball as blistering as his 102mph fastball.
Many expect the Yankees and Dodgers to fight it out for him one day in a bidding war worth hundreds of millions, whenever he decides the time is right to leave the Pittsburgh Pirates. And in the meantime, he is often flanked by his glamorous influencer girlfriend Livvy Dunne, who cheers him on from the stands when she’s not away filming Baywatch in Los Angeles.
But this year, Skenes has been humbled. The Pirates ace who blitzed his way to National League Rookie of the Year in 2024 and the Cy Young award in 2025 has spent the majority of 2026 looking – for the very first time in his career – entirely ordinary.
He has been pulled early in start after start, his venomous fastball dipping to the 96mph mark. His Pirates team that looked like playoff contenders earlier in the year has collapsed into last place, dragging his numbers down with it. And then came the beach photos.
On Wednesday, Skenes was seen with 23-year-old Dunne in Florida, ahead of Pittsburgh’s series with the Miami Marlins, and was swiftly mocked online for his ‘dad bod’ – an unwelcome sideshow to a season already dogged by questions over his form.
MLB great Curt Schilling has pinned the blame on mechanics, pointing to Skenes’ early-season workload at the World Baseball Classic where the man who once served in the Air Force proudly represented his country for the first time. Others, like Pirates manager Don Kelly, think Skenes is chasing an impossible standard set by his own dominant start to his career.
This week a shirtless Skenes was spotted enjoying a beach stroll with girlfriend Livvy Dunne
Skenes pictured with long-term girlfriend Dunne at the 2026 All-Star Red Carpet Show in July
But away from the public theories, a source close to Skenes, 24, has offered a far more detailed account of what has gone wrong this season.
Amid his struggles on the mound – compounded by the emergence of those beachfront pictures with Dunne – some fans have worried that a secret injury could be slowing him down. The ultimate fear would be the dreaded Tommy John surgery to repair elbow ligaments, which can take around 18 months to fully recover.
However an insider, speaking exclusively to the Daily Mail, poured cold water on that theory.
‘Paul’s recent troubles have been happening for several reasons, but if injury is one then both Paul and the team are very tight lipped and keeping any of that information a secret,’ the insider said.
‘But most are thinking he isn’t hurt because if he was, either himself or the Pirates would have shut him down to protect him for the future.’
It is a theory that lines up with the facts on the ground.
Skenes has continued to take the ball every fifth day for a Pirates team with almost nothing left to play for, something a franchise would be unlikely to risk with a genuinely compromised asset heading into his arbitration years.
That also points to another factor around Skenes’ struggles – the state of the team.
For so long, Skenes has looked like a sporting star who has the world at his feet
The 24-year-old Skenes has been pulled early in start after start for the Pittsburgh Pirates
‘Another reason for Paul’s downturn is that his team is hot garbage,’ our source said. ‘They are last place, the team doesn’t protect him with any offense or good defense, so he is being wasted.
‘When he does well, his team’s play screws him and when he has a bad outing, it is looked at as even worse, because his team provides no help to bail him out.
‘That might be the main culprit for all his problems,’ our source further added.
The numbers tell their own story. Skenes’ ERA has climbed to 3.96 this season, more than double his combined 1.96 mark across his first two years in the league, with the Pirates sitting at 58-64 and 16.5 games back in the NL Central.
Recently three-time World Series winner Schilling suggested that the 24-year-old’s struggles have developed from his ‘mechanics’ after his World Baseball Classic games representing the United States in March.
Similarly, our source said: ‘His control, delivery and attention to detail has been a little off, and he has to figure out how to get back to his mechanics that made him so dominant in the last few years.
‘Also starting early with the World Baseball Classic altered his usual set up and preparation to the season. Add that with all the talk getting in his head, he just needs to figure out how to reset and not worry about things and just get back to the fundamentals.’
Skenes remains under club control through 2029 before reaching free agency in 2030, meaning any noise around his long-term value is, for now, premature – but evidently not something that has escaped him.
By 2030, many anticipate Skenes will have moved to one of the games titans – perhaps the New York Yankees (Dunne owns a $3million apartment in Manhattan’s west village) or to California with the Los Angeles Dodgers. But that talk brings pressure, too.
A source claimed that Skenes is constantly looking to impress Dunne from the mound
The pair have been dating for a number of years after meeting at LSU while at college
‘He just has to get the doubt and voices out of his head,’ the source added. ‘Baseball players and especially pitchers are fragile; he is now having his turn with adversity, but he is looking to figure out the kinks and make sense of it all sooner than later.’
On the relationship scrutiny that intensified after the beach photos, the source was firmly in Skenes’ corner.
‘He puts the same attention into his game as he always has, and his relationship is not to blame,’ the source said.
‘He was so good, so fast that of course people are going to be worried that he is a little off, but many are thinking that this is just a bump in the road.’
The source was equally emphatic that Dunne bears no responsibility for her boyfriend’s slump.
‘Paul wants to ball out in front of Livvy, he wants to appear as the man in front of her at all times, but especially on the baseball field,’ the source said.
‘So, she isn’t to blame and she isn’t a distraction to him, because he always wants to look good for her.
‘Things aren’t working out as they have been the last few years and he has to figure out why. He has to make adjustments.
‘It might take a few more starts to turn it around, but he is adamant to do what he needs to do and find the root of the problem so people stop talking about it.’
His next chance comes on Sunday against a resurgent Boston Red Sox team.
