What’s going on in Kerry? The build-up to All-Ireland finals in the Kingdom are usually a time of furrowed brows, concerned grimaces. Not this time, it seems.
From Tomás O Sé proclaiming on The Sunday Game a few weeks ago that it was Kerry’s All-Ireland title to lose to his brother Darragh saying in his newspaper column this week that it’s hard to see anything but a Kingdom win, it feels like something strange is happening in the south-west.
Where are the yerras? Despite the impression they give, Kerry folk are always confident going into an All-Ireland final – 39 titles will have that effect – but they rarely, if ever, show it. However, that misjudged road sign outside Killorglin, which Jack O’Connor was swift to get taken down, was perhaps indicative of a feeling within the county that they only need to show up on Sunday to retain Sam Maguire.
The likes of O’Connor, Kieran Donaghy and Cian O’Neill will ensure that doesn’t seep into players’ minds, but they won’t be completely sheltered from it. And only a small bit of it needs to seep into their heads for complacency to creep into the group.
Jack O’Connor congratulates David Clifford following the quarter-final victory over Tyrone
But there are reasons for the over-confidence.
It’s hard to make a compelling case for Mayo upsetting the odds.
Kerry have just too many fires that need to put out – from the gigantic four across the middle to the Clifford brothers and Dylan Geaney further up the field.
However, this Kerry team is not without its flaws. Footballers from both Tyrone and Dublin will be sitting at home this Sunday and feel a bit sick, as the two teams had their chances to eliminate the All-Ireland champions. There was a slice of luck in the quarter-final and semi-final in that key calls went for them, from the referees and umpires.
Since Donegal’s Ciaran Moore sauntered through for a goal in the game in Killarney, Kerry haven’t conceded another one through the whole championship. And that has been by design as they are operating a scramble defence in a low block in front of their goal. However, that determination to keep a clean sheet means that they are giving teams easier chances further out the field.
Jason Foley of Kerry under pressure from Colm Basquel of Dublin in the All-Ireland semi-final
As was clear against both Tyrone and Dublin, Kerry give teams the space to shoot for two-pointers and no team has taken greater advantage of those scores in this championship than Mayo. They have raised 28 orange flags so far this summer, which accounts for more than 30 percent of their overall tally – the highest percentage of any of the 16 teams who were in the race for Sam Maguire. And no team has averaged as many two-pointers in a game as Mayo.
It has meant that they can afford to drift out of games or even lose the kick-out battle, as they have done in the past two games, and still produce a couple of big scores to get back into the match.
Darragh Beirne, Ryan O’Donoghue, Jack Carney, Jordan Flynn and Kobe McDonald are all capable of producing orange flags. And the way that Kerry have been defending, sitting deep and flooding bodies inside the arc, will give opportunities outside the arc.
Dublin couldn’t take full advantage of it the last day, but Mayo must take every chance that is given to them.
Kerry’s Paul Murphy attempts to erscape the clutches of Dublin’s Charlie McMorrow
In last year’s All-Ireland football final, Donegal – despite having a large number of long-range shooters – didn’t raise one orange flag and David Clifford was able to kick a couple of two-pointers to open up a gap.
With the significance that two-pointers will play if there is to be a shock, it will be crucial to see who wins the toss on Sunday. It is clear that those at the Davin End are the scoring posts in Croke Park. The way the wind blows from the exposed Hill 16 side can play havoc with shooters – both in hurling and football.
So, if Mayo captain Jack Carney does win the toss, it’s imperative that he elects to shoot into the Davin, if simply just to try and build up a lead on Kerry. Scoreboard pressure can feel even more acute on All-Ireland final day.
Much of the talk in this build-up has been about how the Mayo defenders will deal with all the Kerry threats – and perhaps that has led to the outward show of confidence down in the Kingdom. But what about the threats that the underdogs pose at the other end?
Kobe McDonald has the ability to find weakness in the Kerry defence in the All-Ireland final
While Jason Foley has had another superb season, copper-fastening his reputation as the best full-back in the country, both Dylan Casey and Paul Murphy had hairy moments against both Dublin and Tyrone. And this Sunday, the corner-backs will be asked to marshal the two of the most exciting inside forwards in the game.
For years, as Mayo were taking Dublin to the brink, they depended on their half-back line, especially Lee Keegan, to provide the thrust on the scoreboard. Not anymore. They now possess one of the most feared inside-lines in the country.
Against Cork, O’Donoghue, McDonald and Beirne scored 0-19 out of 0-23. Against Louth, it was 2-17 out of 3-23.
If they can supply enough ball into their three inside-forwards, Mayo know they will do damage. That hasn’t always be the case with their teams going down the years. And all three can score goals.
The assuredness that Beirne and McDonald display despite being teenagers, and their remarkable ability to scrub a mistake from their mind and go searching for the next ball, illustrates a fearlessness that has been evident since they came to Croke Park.
O’Donoghue in the middle knits everything together. He runs himself into the ground when his team are out of possession, but he does most of the damage when he does have the ball.
This Kerry team have many strengths and Shane Murphy’s mastery off the kicking tee mean they rarely lose a kick-out. But in areas where they are weakest – the defensive corners and the way that they have allowed easy two-point attempts – are places where Mayo have the tools to punish them.
Darragh Beirne will present Kerry with an attacking threat they have not encountered before
It is not much to cling to, which is why there is such confidence emanating from Kerry, but it is something. Mayo have inside-forwards who are hungry for goals, they have more long-range shooters than probably any other team. They need to raise both green and orange flags this weekend to have any chance.
We may know within a few minutes what complexion that this game is going to take – and that is why the toss will be crucial. If Mayo are shooting into the Canal End and finding the range with two-pointers, they will ask questions of Kerry that for everything they did right, neither Tyrone or Dublin really asked.
