There has been a significant shift in the Ballon d’Or betting market following the World Cup semi-finals.
Harry Kane had been the favourite for weeks after the market opened, with Kylian Mbappe installed as the second favourite. It’s easy to see why.
Kane enjoyed a sensational campaign for Bayern Munich, scoring 61 goals across all competitions. He has also starred for England at the World Cup, finding the net six times as the Three Lions reached the semi-finals, which saw his odds continue to shorten.
Mbappe has also been in prolific form. The Real Madrid forward scored 42 goals in 44 appearances across all competitions during the 2025-26 season, before carrying that form onto the international stage. He has netted eight goals in seven World Cup appearances for France.
However, despite their outstanding club and international campaigns, both players have drifted in the betting following their respective semi-final exits.
Kane is now the 5/2 second favourite, while Mbappe sits at 4/1 in third after France were beaten by Spain and England fell to reigning champions Argentina.
Odds revealed: Lionel Messi leapfrogs Harry Kane in Sky Bet’s Ballon d’Or betting
Argentina’s victory over the Three Lions has prompted Lionel Messi to leapfrog both Kane and Mbappe at the top of Sky Bet’s Ballon d’Or market.
While Messi’s club numbers with Inter Miami – 13 goals and seven assists in 16 appearances across all competitions – are modest by his extraordinary standards, his performances at the 2026 World Cup have once again strengthened his claim as one of football’s greatest-ever players.
The 39-year-old has scored eight goals and provided four assists on Argentina’s run to the final, including two assists in their dramatic 2-1 comeback victory over England in the last four.
Awaiting Argentina in the final is Spain, and victory would hand Messi back-to-back World Cup titles while significantly strengthening his Ballon d’Or credentials.
Having entered the semi-finals as the fourth-best backed nation among the teams remaining, another World Cup triumph would cap a remarkable campaign for the Argentine captain.
For those expecting Messi to complete the job, Sky Bet has now installed him as the 6/4 favourite to win a record-extending ninth Ballon d’Or.
Meanwhile, Spain duo Lamine Yamal and Rodri, who will both feature in Sunday’s World Cup final against Argentina, complete the top five in Sky Bet’s Ballon d’Or market. Yamal is priced at 9/2, while 2024 Ballon d’Or winner Rodri is available at 12/1.
- All odds are correct at the time of publication
