For all the permutations around third-place access to the last-32 at this World Cup, one detail is straightforward for Scotland – their chances of progression will increase exponentially if Scott McTominay ups his game against Brazil in Miami on Wednesday.
Through two matches, we are yet to see the shades of brilliance that characterised his transformation from a Manchester United cast-off to the darling of Naples.
He hasn’t been bad, but nor did he excel in the fixtures against Haiti and Morocco. By his standards, the dip has been conspicuous and those lower-key contributions have fed into the grumbles around Steve Clarke’s handling of this return to the global stage.
Given Scotland can lose to Brazil and still advance from a World Cup group for the first time, there is perhaps a touch too much heat in that debate.
But the conversation around McTominay’s form is relevant – he is Scotland’s talisman and creative pulse; the player who is simultaneously their poster boy and the paper that covers other cracks. With McTominay failing to sparkle so far in the United States, it is not a surprise that perceptions of Clarke’s tactical negativity have been thrown into a sharper focus this week.
‘Scott is fine,’ he said in his final engagement prior to heading to Miami. ‘It’s a very, very British thing. You put people on the pedestal to chop them down. I have got no idea why.
Scott McTominay has not yet been at his best for Scotland so far at the World Cup
‘He hasn’t had the influence on the game but he hit the post against Haiti and he looks a goal threat going forward. Hopefully he will end up getting the headlines that he deserves.’
Based on McTominay’s two seasons in Italy, and Clarke’s success in getting Scotland to multiple major tournaments, some faith in his words is warranted.
But the urgency is real and so is the intrigue around the particulars of this match, because Brazil will likely pitch McTominay into direct opposition with a midfielder whom he knows well. In what might be a case of fortuitous timing, Casemiro is looking like a weak link in a distinctly average midfield.
With his move from Manchester United to Inter Miami imminent, he too is operating under an imperative to offer reminders of his class – he was hooked by Carlo Ancelotti at half-time against Morocco and was only marginally better versus Haiti. Riding in after a sterling redemption at Old Trafford, he has suddenly looked all of his 34 years over here.
Ancelotti isn’t blessed with alternatives to partner Bruno Guimaraes, beyond Fabinho, who has spent three years in Saudi Arabia since leaving Liverpool. His trust in Ederson and Danilo has been limited, meaning Casemiro is expected to be tasked with keeping McTominay quiet.
There will be an interesting subplot if that match-up is delivered, if only for the easily-forgotten quirk that Casemiro played an indirect, yet significant, role in the uplift of McTominay’s career.
Had Casemiro agreed to a move away from United in the summer of 2024, when the club was raising the cash they went on to burn for Manuel Ugarte, there was a strong chance that McTominay would never have been sold to Napoli. Nor would he have been elevated from defensive midfield to his greater calling as a Serie A-winning playmaker.
Regrets? United have had a few and McTominay presumably has none.
McTominay and Casemiro, pictured as team-mates at Man United in 2022, are set to do battle
But he will need to underline that growth against Casemiro, who in turn needs to prove, again, that not all dips past the age of 30 are irreversible.
He has pulled it off before, of course, but this time it carries the pressure of showing Ancelotti that a brilliant centre-back pairing and elite attack won’t be failed by the hinge between two units.
For his part, Clarke must measure his enthusiasm when it comes to going after the Brazilians. A draw would effectively guarantee Scotland’s advance and a 1-0 defeat would almost certainly keep his side among the eight best third-placed nations, but a heavier loss makes life complicated. It is also eminently plausible.
‘If I go gung-ho in attack and get beat 4-0 you’ll hang me from that bird’s nest up there,’ said Clarke, pointing to a tree. Those present would stress that he was laughing as he delivered the line; it’s possible that both his work and humour deserve a little more credit.
But it is indisputable that Clarke has repeatedly sided with a defensive approach during his tenure and many fans, joyful as they have been on this American adventure, are tired of it.
Casemiro will be looking to show there is still plenty of life in his legs
Had Scotland succeeded with at least one of their two penalty appeals against Morocco, then critiques of those tactics would be kinder, but perspective is usually the first casualty of a tournament.
An injury to Brentford right-back Aaron Hickey won’t ease anxieties around the threat of Vinicius Jr and there are also fitness concerns around Lewis Ferguson and Scott McKenna. But it is likely that Clarke will restore the dynamic threat of Ben Gannon-Doak to his right wing, which would satisfy many who were exasperated to see him benched against Morocco.
That would be a positive step. But for those wishing to extend this party, nothing will pump up the music quite like seeing McTominay at his best.
