Do we ever learn?
On Friday morning, the IRFU announced that Andy Farrell had signed a new contract, which will take the head coach through to the 2031 World Cup, which is set to take place in the USA – a move which has been widely-hailed has a shrewd piece of business, for all concerned.
It makes sense, on many levels. There are plenty of warnings from history, however.
In February of 1997, Brian Ashton put pen to paper on a whopping six-year deal with the IRFU. The former Bath supremo had been serving as a coaching advisor at the time, but the brains trust at Ireland HQ backed the Englishman to lead the national team through the next two World Cup cycles.
Ashton was gone within a year, with Warren Gatland stepping in to steady the ship.
Shambles: Ireland head coach Brian Ashton (right) with team manager Pat Whelan in 1997
In August of 2007, Eddie O’Sullivan signed a four-year contract extension with the IRFU, which was intended to keep him on board until the 2012 Six Nations. The following month, Ireland imploded at the World Cup and were dumped out at the pool stages.
O’Sullivan soldiered on but he and the IRFU parted ways after the 2008 Six Nations, when Ireland finished a lowly fourth in the final standings.
Are you noticing a pattern? These bumper deals have a habit of blowing up in the union’s face.
In fairness to Farrell, he has overseen a superb body of work since he succeeded Joe Schmidt in the wake of a disastrous 2019, which featured a shoddy Six Nations and a World Cup debacle.
Shake on it: Ireland head coach Eddie O’Sullivan with IRFU chief executive Philip Browne at the announcement of a four-year extension for O’Sullivan just before the 2007 World Cup
Under the Wigan man’s watch, Ireland have claimed a brace of Six Nations titles, including a Grand Slam, a historic series win in New Zealand as well as a drawn series against the Springboks. He also coached the Lions to a 2-1 series win against the Wallabies. He will be short odds to lead the tourists to New Zealand in 2029.
Farrell built on the solid foundations laid down by Schmidt and took the entire project forward. He is popular with players and fans. And the man himself clearly believes that he can take this team to great heights at next year’s World Cup and the next edition four years later.
Down and out: Joe McCarthy (left) and Mack Hansen after the 2023 World Cup quarter-final loss to New Zealand in Paris. Ireland have never made it to the semi-finals
But what if the World Cup wheels come off again down in Oz next year? We’re constantly hearing about how much the players love ‘Camp Faz’. Again, what if things being to sour?
And that’s always a possibility. Again, there is precedent.
Schmidt’s Ireland were love bombed, from all angles, for years. Indeed, some observers hailed the New Zealander’s squad as ‘bulletproof’ during their all-conquering campaign of 2018. We all know what transpired 12 months later in Japan.
Again, the World Cup is the major acid test for this squad. We’re looking at 40 years of hurt when the big one kicks off Down Under. The national team have never won a World Cup knockout game. That’s a cold, hard and sobering fact.
If Farrell’s Ireland fail on that front, again, don’t be surprised if the mood music around this contract extension takes a dramatic shift.
Why all the haste? Yes, there was chat that Saracens or England were keen to lure Farrell back across the Irish Sea. Surely a two-year extension would have been more prudent? See how the land lies in 2029 and then reassess? Farrell himself is on the record stating that he doesn’t believe in four-year cycles.
For all of his undeniable talents, as a coach, motivator and innovator, if Farrell sees this new deal out, he will have been on this coaching ticket for the best part of 15 years, spanning his stints as defence and head coach. That’s a long time in the same gig. People could point to Alex Ferguson’s remarkable 26-year tenure as Manchester United manager, and the club’s struggles since the Scot called it a day. But Ferguson is very much an outlier, across professional sport.
There is a long history of brilliant coaches who outstayed their welcome.
Local hero: Andy Farrell has been brilliant for Ireland but long-term deal is massive risk
But what about Rassie Erasmus recently signing a deal until 2031, I hear you say? Thing is, the Springboks boss has landed two World Cups, united a country which has been defined by deep divisions, and he is on course to land an unprecedented hat-trick of global triumphs.
Until Farrell makes a serious dent at a World Cup – the ultimate prize – the jury will remain out on this new deal.
This is a calculated risk from the IRFU. It has learned the hard way in the past. Here’s hoping Farrell can buck that trend. Best of luck to him.
