WASHINGTON—President Trump and Democrats rarely find themselves in alignment. Yet both sides wanted the same outcome in Tuesday’s Texas Senate primary runoff election.
Ken Paxton’s trouncing of incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the Republican runoff represents Trump’s latest triumph in maintaining his grip on his MAGA base after he similarly ousted rivals in Indiana, Louisiana and Kentucky. But to the delight of Democrats, the president’s decision to make an 11th-hour endorsement of Paxton could put the Senate seat in play for James Talarico after decades of Democratic futility in the Lone Star State.
Paxton’s primary showdown with Cornyn was the costliest Senate GOP primary on record, according to AdImpact, with Cornyn’s forces alone spending nearly $100 million in their attempt to defeat the Trump-endorsed state attorney general, who survived impeachment and scandal to win the runoff with nearly 64% of the vote.
Paxton’s wide margin of victory showed the power of the Trump endorsement and his ability to coalesce GOP support around his favored candidates. In the initial March primary, Cornyn narrowly edged Paxton, 42% to 40%, but no one cleared the required 50%, forcing a runoff.
“When everyone in Washington told him to abandon me and abandon the people of Texas, he didn’t listen. Instead, he gave his complete and total endorsement,” Paxton said of the president in a speech to supporters Tuesday night. “His endorsement…is the most powerful force in politics.” He called Talarico “a threat to everything we hold dear in this state and in this country.”
The risk for Republicans is that more moderate and independent voters in the general election will be turned off by Paxton, providing an opening for Talarico, the seminarian and state lawmaker who has become a fundraising force among national Democrats hungry for victory in Texas. Democrats haven’t won a statewide election in Texas since 1994.
Cornyn and national Republican groups hammered Paxton with an onslaught of ads highlighting scandals throughout Paxton’s career, arguments Talarico is sure to make in the general election. Minutes after the race was called for Paxton, Cook Political Report moved the general election forecast from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican.”
“Trump and Republican primary voters value fighting over winning. Paxton could win but there are way too many Herschel Walkers and Todd Akins and Richard Mourdocks wrecked on the side of the election highway,” said Doug Heye, a Republican strategist, referencing past GOP Senate candidates who failed to win in Republican-leaning states.
Talarico has shown the ability to spark viral moments on the campaign trail, speaking about his Christian faith and offering critiques of the Trump era. Talarico raised $27 million during the first three months of the year, and his candidacy gained attention in February when CBS scrapped an interview that Stephen Colbert had planned with the Texas legislator.
In a video posted on X, Talarico called Paxton “the most corrupt politician in America” and referenced his rival’s impeachment over allegations he accepted bribes and abused his office. He labeled the Senate race, “the people versus Ken Paxton.”
Republicans have dismissed Talarico as another lightweight challenger, likening him to former Rep. Beto O’Rourke, the El Paso congressman who captivated Texas Democrats only to lose to Sen. Ted Cruz in the 2018 Senate election.
Paxton now becomes Republicans’ standard-bearer while some Senate Republicans have rebelled against Trump, irritated by the president’s decision to abandon Cornyn, a well-liked former member of Senate GOP leadership whose political career has spanned more than three decades.
The Senate GOP has pushed back against a $1.8 billion “anti-weaponization” fund promoted by Trump and warned that it could derail approval of a $70 billion multiyear package funding immigration enforcement. Some lawmakers were also irritated by Trump’s decision to endorse Paxton only days before the primary, complicating passage of the president’s agenda and leading to tensions in a private meeting last week with acting Attorney General Todd Blanche.
“There were a lot of Republican senators who were just pissed,” said Cruz, who recounted the meeting on his podcast. Cruz remained neutral in the primary and then endorsed Paxton following Tuesday’s results.
In the coming days, Republicans will face questions about how forcefully they will coalesce around Paxton’s candidacy. Paxton has become a MAGA favorite for using the attorney general’s office to pursue right-wing causes and questioning Cornyn’s commitment to the president’s agenda.
In his endorsement, Trump called Paxton a “true MAGA Warrior” and called Cornyn a “good man” but said he was “not supportive of me when times were tough.” He also said Cornyn was “very late in backing” his 2024 presidential bid.
Trump was close to endorsing Cornyn in March but the president held off making the endorsement after Paxton pressured Cornyn to push the Senate to pass a voting bill called the SAVE America Act, a Trump priority.
But the Senate GOP campaign arm, the National Senatorial Campaign Committee, assailed Paxton with negative ads, drawing attention to his impeachment, legal challenges and pending divorce. The controversies include abuse-of-office allegations from members of his top staff (which he denied); a securities fraud indictment (which he resolved with a pretrial deal); an impeachment by the Republican Texas House (and his later acquittal); and a continuing divorce initiated by his wife, who alleged adultery.
The NRSC, in a statement Tuesday night, made no mention of Paxton by name but said: “A state President Trump won by nearly 14 points isn’t going to elect James Talarico.”
Paxton’s decisive victory gives Trump another notch in his endorsement scorecard after ousting Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy, who voted to convict Trump in his 2021 impeachment trial, Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie, and a group of Indiana state senators who opposed a Trump-backed redistricting plan. In those primaries, Trump’s endorsement of challengers served as a difference-maker.
Cornyn, conceding defeat to Paxton, said he would support the Republican ticket. “My hope is to keep my party in power for generations,” Cornyn said. “I am an optimist by nature, which is just another way of saying I am a Texan.”
Write to Ken Thomas at ken.thomas@wsj.com
