Russia could drag another European country into the ongoing war with Ukraine, a UK Defence Journal spokesperson has warned. Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine was launched in February 2022 and has shown no sign of stopping. Defence expert George Allison says that Russia will aim to include an ally state in the hopes of gaining power in the stalemate.
Whether Belarus joins the war against Ukraine is yet to be seen, but UK Defence Journal editor Allison suggests it would benefit the country, which borders Russia. Speaking to Metro, Allison outlined how Russia had already built up a military infrastructure within the neighbouring country.
Allison said: “Ukraine has warned repeatedly this year that Russia is building up military infrastructure in Belarus, including new roads and artillery positions along the northern border. Kyiv says Moscow has been actively pressuring Lukashenko to commit Belarusian forces to the conflict, and claims to have details of direct conversations between Putin and the Belarusian leader.
“Zelensky says Ukraine is war-gaming scenarios in which Russia uses Belarus to strike toward (Ukrainian cities) Chernihiv and Kyiv, or potentially a Nato member state.
“Analysts say a full ground offensive would require Russia to redeploy forces it cannot currently spare from the front line, but the roads, logistics routes and artillery positions going up now mean that could change. This is, I believe, a real and serious possibility. It seems likely to me that the pressure on Lukashenko will only grow.”
It remains to be seen whether Aleksandr Lukashenko will be dragged into the conflict, though an unnamed business leader told The Guardian that there had been a “shift in mood” within Russia against Putin.
The anonymous source said: “There’s definitely been a shift in mood among the elites this year … there is profound disappointment in Putin. No one believes everything will suddenly collapse tomorrow.
“But there is a growing realisation that utterly senseless, self-destructive decisions keep being made. People who once defended Putin no longer do. Any sense of a future has disappeared.”
