The United Arab Emirates’ decision to withdraw from OPEC and the OPEC+ has exposed long-standing tensions with Saudi Arabia and signalled a shift in the balance of power in the Gulf.
According to Reuters, analysts say the move goes beyond a technical dispute over production quotas, reflecting deeper political and strategic disagreements between Abu Dhabi and Riyadh.
Gulf sources cited in the report said the UAE views OPEC as structurally biased and is seeking greater independence in shaping its energy policy, using oil output decisions to assert autonomy from Saudi influence.
READ: UAE to withdraw from OPEC, OPEC+
The development also points to a personal and strategic divergence between UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
Fawaz Gerges of the London School of Economics said the shift reflects a deeper rupture, describing it as “a much more serious rift than we realise” and “a kind of separation between the two most powerful leaders in the Gulf”.
Sources said the decision follows years of disagreement over regional issues, including conflicts in Yemen and Sudan, as well as differing visions for the region’s political and economic order.
By leaving OPEC+, the UAE is expected to gain greater control over its oil production and exports, moving away from a framework long shaped by Saudi leadership and potentially redefining energy politics across the Gulf.
READ: Saudi expert says UAE exit from OPEC to have limited impact on oil markets
