Like a losing gambler constantly borrowing to up his or her bet, the US is trying to escalate its way out of the Iran crisis by stepping up its targeting of military sites.
At the same time it is also switching to infrastructure such as airport runways and bridges. This is putting Israel in the firing line as well as Gulf States, with Qatar under attack from Tehran for the first time in months and sirens blaring in Bahrain and Kuwait.
Both sides are looking to push the aggression a little further each time and are looking for ways to exert pressure on the other to give up. The Iranian regime is watching US President Donald Trump’s ranting carefully, perhaps calculated correctly that he is growing bored and very frustrated over the conflict. It has been reported that the White House is now prepared for many weeks of fighting over the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump cannot find a path to withdrawing, with the paralysis on the Strait of Hormuz lifted and in which he avoids huge humiliation and Iranian claims of victory. It is possible that this is because one does not exist – beyond major escalation and upping the ante, trying to force Tehran to back down. Whilst it seems unlikely Tehran will do that, it is also the direction of travel Trump’s administration appears to be choosing.
Tehran claims it targeted US bases and may have impacted one in Bahrain with a short-to-medium missile as American forces expand their targeting. Sources tell the Mirror the US strikes are more powerful, a possible indication that more potent munitions are being used to try and leverage capitulation from Iran. The second powerful attack by the US struck military sites all along Iran’s southern coast but also targeted Iran’s Aq Qala bridge in the north which is used to trade with Russia.
And this may mark either a subtle change in US military policy, homing in on civilian infrastructure such as trade routes, or that it is simply running out of available targets. All of this is becoming increasingly dangerous for the west and NATO as its senior partner the US is depleting its weapons stocks and air defence systems.
Not only are these used to protect US and NATO bases but they are also made available to Arab partners and allies – and crucially Ukraine. Kyiv is desperate for Patriot missiles which are the only reliable defence mechanisms against Russia’s ballistic missiles, even though they can cost £2 million-a-time. There are simply not enough to go round. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky demanded recently that NATO remove Patriots from “warehouses” and get them to Kyiv, which has been hammered only this week.
But there is a problem. The US has piled through roughly half of its Patriot and THAAD defence stocks, a third of its Tomahawk cruise missiles and half of its precision strike ballistic munitions. Incredibly Iran has managed to soak up and deplete the US supplies of missiles and bombs and stocks could take between three to five years to replenish. Surging energy prices have hugely benefited Russia which before the Iran war was becoming desperate for cash to pay for its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Iran, and probably Russia, calculated that as the US threw its munitions at Tehran and other cities it could outlast the onslaught and it has done so. Sending hundreds of drones to be intercepted by Israel, the US and their allies may outcost the opposition because a £30,000 drone can cost hundreds of thousands of pounds to shoot down. The US produces 650 Patriots annually, with plans to increase this to 2,000 a year by 2033. But Russia makes up to 1,000 of various types of ballistic missiles a year.
As the US runs out of both defence and offensive missiles it is estimated it will take it between three to five years to replenish. Inevitably an America not prepared and armed up enough for a major war makes the west weaker. Conflict in Iran is achieving nothing and whilst it oscillates between rage and lull NATO’s adversaries are watching carefully. Trump is running out of time to decide to face utter humiliation and walk away whilst mature diplomats and strategists try to unravel the Strait of Hormuz paralysis.
