Ukrainian property tycoon Vadim Ermolaev, 58, is fighting for his life after a bomb exploded outside a luxury home in Monaco – several theories have now emerged as to who is behind the attack
Vladimir Putin has been accused of ordering an assassination attempt after a booby-trapped backpack exploded in front of a billionaire’s home.
Ukrainian property tycoon Vadim Ermolaev, 58, has been left fighting his life after the huge explosion outside a luxury home in Monaco last night, in what police are treating as a “deliberate” targeted attack. His wife, Anna Iermolaieva, is reported to have lost both her feet in the blast and is in a “life-threatening” condition, while the couple’s teenage son was also injured.
The parcel bombing, unprecedented in the safe billionaire’s enclave, has sparked a cross-border manhunt, with the suspect now believed to have fled to neighbouring France. No-one has been named in connection with the attack – but that hasn’t stopped a number of theories emerging about who might be behind it.
Who is Vadim Ermolae?
Mr Ermolaev, a Ukrainian-born businessman originally from the city of Dnipro, built his fortune through the Alef Group, a diversified holding with interests including commercial real estate, manufacturing and agriculture.
He became one of the country’s best-known property developers, leading projects that reshaped parts of Dnipro’s city centre, and has regularly appeared in rankings of Ukraine’s wealthiest businessmen. He and wife Anna have been patrons of the Dnipro-based Kiddo Charitable Foundation since 2012.
Vadim has previously said he renounced his Ukrainian citizenship and became a Cypriot citizen in 2017.
In December 2023, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy imposed sanctions on Mr Ermolaev as part of a broader package targeting individuals and companies Kyiv said had business links to Russia or Russian-occupied territories.
Russian connection theory
Through his property empire, Mr Ermolaev has close business ties within Russia – a country where businessmen who irritate the Kremlin are frequently the target of assassination attempts.
And while his record suggests he leans towards being more pro-Russia than pro-Ukraine, things can change very quickly when you’re dealing with the Kremlin. There are also dealings in his past that suggest potential points of friction.
Following the 2014 annexation of Crimea by Vladimir Putin, Mr Ermolaev lost a number of breweries and offices in the region. He then attempted to retrieve these when the Russians launched their full-scale invasion in 2022 – leading to the Ukrainian government freezing his assets in December the following year for “paying taxes to the budget of the Russian Federation.”
His agricultural firm, the Alef Group, is also heavily invested in eastern and southern Ukraine, areas which have come under heavy shelling.
Any attempts to try and further make up his losses would have put him on a collision course with more powerful, Russian-born elites, who are more likely to have the ear of the Kremlin.
Ukrainian secret services
Others have speculated that Ukraine may be behind the attack.
Despite being born in the country, Mr Ermolaev was no friend of Kyiv, ending up on their sanctions list and being named and shamed in the “Battalion Monaco” exposé by Ukrainian media, which focused on wealthy Ukrainians who fled abroad.
But while Ukraine has launched drone attacks on Russian soil, it seems less likely that they would carry out a bombing in Monaco and risk the political fallout – especially at a time when Volodymyr Zelensky is asking for military aid from his neighbours on the continent.
Politically motivated individual or organised crime
There is also the possibility that neither Ukraine or Russia were involved in the attack, and that it was carried out by an individual with connections to organised crime, or a private political motivation.
His dealings in property and alcohol in the disputed Crimean peninsula would have exposed him to a ‘mafia state’ where local gangs and corrupt officials wield unchecked power – and killing Mr Ermolaev would not to be unpalatable to them if he acted against their interests.
What have police said?
French and Monaco authorities are searching for an unidentified suspect, whose motive is under investigation, authorities said.
Christophe Mirmand, minister of state for Monaco, said it appeared the family was “specifically targeted” and the suspect had “walked around the area several times” waiting for the victims before the attack.
Prosecutor Stephane Thibault told reporters that Monaco police have opened an attempted murder investigation , but are not treating the incident as an act of terrorism.
