On his path to power, Anwar Ibrahim spent nearly ten years in jail on politicised corruption and sodomy charges. Now the man who has been prime minister since November 2022 is experiencing confinement of another kind. Over three years into the job that he coveted for so long, the walls are closing in on the veteran of Malaysian politics.
Over three years into the job that Anwar Ibrahim coveted for so long, the walls are closing in on the veteran of Malaysian politics. (Getty)
Mr Anwar leads a coalition with a supermajority in parliament, but his partners are eyeing the exits. Two upcoming state elections look likely to bring down his government if the results do not go his way. The voting in Johor, a southern data-centre powerhouse, and Negeri Sembilan, a smaller state farther up the peninsula, will not affect the make-up of the federal parliament. But the coalition partners are testing their strength by running against each other in both states.
One of them, the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO), was long Malaysia’s ruling party before losing power in 2018. Its members have bristled at playing second fiddle to Mr Anwar in his multi-party coalition. Worse, it has meant joining hands with their arch-rivals, the majority-Chinese Democratic Action Party (DAP), the largest single party in the coalition. UMNO holds itself up as the guardian of Malaysia’s longstanding affirmative action policies showered upon the majority Malay ethnic group, while the DAP argues for more meritocracy.
If UMNO does well in the state polls, that could give it the confidence to withdraw from the coalition at the federal level and go it alone at the next election. That in itself would not bring down the government. But the DAP is also thinking of quitting. Its erstwhile supporters have abandoned it in big numbers, impatient with Mr Anwar’s refusal to reform affirmative-action policies. On August 16th DAP cadres are due to hold a special congress at which they will decide whether they want to stick with Mr Anwar. If they, too, withdraw from the coalition, then the government would fall, triggering an election with more than a year remaining in the current parliamentary term.
Mr Anwar has only himself to blame. Having cast himself as a champion of reform for nearly three decades, he has limped along doing painfully little in that direction. His defenders argue that he has had to go slow, given the coalition maths. But many of Anwar’s old comrades in his People’s Justice Party (PKR) do not agree. Last month, Mr Anwar’s former deputy in the PKR, Rafizi Ramli, left the party to form his own, dedicated to reform.
The state elections might offer a hint as to what comes after Mr Anwar. One likely outcome in Negeri Sembilan, says Bridget Welsh, an expert on Malaysian politics, is a coalition between the Malay nationalist UMNO and the Islamist PAS. That could foreshadow an alliance at the federal level. Such a coalition would be even less likely than Mr Anwar to do much reforming.
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