Majority of US voters think Iran war 'not worth it', new poll finds

Sixty percent of American voters think US military action against Iran was “not worth it”, according to a national poll from Quinnipac University. 

Public sentiment appears to have shifted sharply after the signing of the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Iran, a pact to end hostilities for 60 days while the US and Iran negotiate terms for a permanent end to the war. 

Voters, however, are split on the matter, with Democrats overwhelmingly feeling it wasn’t worth it (93 percent) while 75 percent of Republicans felt the war was worth it. A majority of independents, 66 percent, felt the war was not worth it. 

The scepticism extends to the diplomatic settlement itself, with the poll determining that 59 percent of American voters are either “not so confident” or “not confident at all” in the MoU. 

Once again, Republicans had greater confidence in the deal, with 76 percent saying they were either “very” or “somewhat” confident the deal with Iran would work.

On 28 February, US President Donald Trump, alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, began the US-Israeli war on Iran to “eliminate imminent threats from the Iranian regime”. The total destruction of Iran’s nuclear programme and military infrastructure was one of their primary stated objectives. 

The poll shows that the subsequent deal has weakened perceptions of the US’s ability to achieve its primary objective, with 61 percent believing it remains likely that Iran will develop nuclear weapons. Democrats and Republicans are not as split on this, with a majority of both political camps believing that Iran is “very likely” or “somewhat likely” to still develop nuclear weapons.

Trump framed the attempt to enforce regime change as an altruistic mission, announcing to the Iranian people: “When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be, probably, your only chance for generations.”

But regime change in Iran failed, despite the US and Israel assassinating the former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as well as a slew of other top leaders. Khamenei was replaced by his son Mojtaba as the new Supreme Leader of Iran, but is reported to have been severely wounded in the strikes that killed his father.

The US has now also conceded that it was not able to destroy Iran’s ballistic missile programme, a stated aim of its war, and has even now defended Iran’s right to possess a ballistic missile programme.

The MoU shifted voters’ geopolitical perception, with 45 percent of American voters believing the US is in a weaker position in the world due to the war. 

Steep economic strain caused by Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz after the war has likely encouraged public antagonism. 

Middle East Eye has reported that the three-month war cost the US almost $60bn, and that the Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz forced the average household to spend an additional $447.19 on fuel expenses.

The Quinnipac poll surveyed 1,165 self-identified registered voters nationwide from 18-22 June, with a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points.

Perceptions of Israel hit new low

The US’s primary partner in the war was Israel, and US officials have stated that Israel helped convince the US to go to war with Iran. Public opinion in the US has slowly been shifting in opposition to Israel, and the Quinnipac poll shows that 48 percent think the US is too supportive of Israel.

Quinnipac noted that this was the highest they have recorded since it started asking this question in 2017.

Republicans generally have a more favourable view of Israel, and according to this poll just 20 percent felt the US was too supportive, while 66 percent of Democrats and 55 percent of independents felt the US was too supportive. 

It’s not just in the US where people feel there is nothing to celebrate after the MoU, as a new poll has found that 92 percent of Israelis believe Iran won the war.

The survey, conducted by the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, found that Israelis overwhelmingly view the war and subsequent deal with the US in a negative way, with 83 percent of those polled saying the campaign has weakened Israel’s long-term security and 86 percent feeling negatively about the outcome.

This public perception mirrors the feelings of Israel’s political and military elite, many of whom see the end of the war on Iran as representing a turning point that could weaken Israel’s regional influence.

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The poll found that 72.5 percent of Israelis do not believe Netanyahu when he says Israel achieved significant gains and removed an existential threat, a feeling that also reflects the growing uncertainty around the prime minister’s future.

Nearly 88 percent of respondents said Israel had either failed to achieve its objectives or achieved only some of them. Fifty-six percent said Netanyahu’s management of the war on Iran had been poor or had failed altogether.

These feelings about how Iran has emerged from the war are not matched by a desire for Israel to withdraw from Lebanon, which has been a key stumbling block during negotiations between Washington and Tehran.

Iran has insisted that a ceasefire cannot hold while Israel continues to bomb Lebanon and Israeli troops remain stationed several kilometres inside southern Lebanon.

According to the poll, 48 percent of Israelis support Israel’s military campaign in Lebanon, where it claims to be focused on targeting Hezbollah, the Iran-aligned political party and military group. Among those respondents, support remained even if the campaign risked a confrontation with Trump.

The poll was conducted by the Agam Institute in collaboration with the Hebrew University of Jerusalem between 17 June and 20 June. The survey questioned 3,644 Israelis aged 17 and over in a weighted sample to reflect the population.

The maximum sampling error is 2.2 percent at a 99-percent confidence level, the pollsters said.