The AFL has been warned it faces a fight for the next generation of supporters as Australia’s population becomes increasingly diverse due to immigration and younger audiences turn to global sports and digital entertainment.
Political pollster and researcher Kos Samaras delivered the message to AFL chief executives and league officials during a conference on the Gold Coast, where he outlined the demographic changes reshaping Australia and the challenges they pose for the code.
The briefing comes as new Australian Bureau of Statistics figures show 8.8 million Australians were born overseas, accounting for 32 per cent of the nation’s population – the highest proportion recorded since the late 19th century.
India has now overtaken England as Australia’s largest overseas-born population for the first time, with almost one million Indian-born residents living in Australia.
Samaras, who founded research firm RedBridge, told club bosses they could no longer rely on what he described as ‘inherited loyalty’ from supporters.
According to those present, he compared the AFL’s position to Australia’s major political parties, arguing that long-standing allegiances could no longer be taken for granted in a rapidly changing society.
Political pollster Kos Samaras warned AFL executives the league can no longer rely on inherited supporter loyalty as Australia’s population becomes increasingly diverse
New ABS figures show 32 per cent of Australians were born overseas, with India overtaking England as the nation’s largest overseas-born population
The AFL has previously played matches in Shanghai, China, and there are moves afoot to play a game for competition points in India
The AFL has identified India as a potential growth market as it looks to attract supporters from Australia’s fastest-growing migrant communities
The Shanghai Cup featured 19 teams from across Asia and provided a grassroots showcase for Australian rules football in China
The pollster pointed to the fact that one in three Australians are now born overseas and said traditional assumptions about sporting loyalties no longer apply, according to Nine Newspapers.
He also warned clubs that younger Australians are increasingly consuming entertainment differently from previous generations.
Samaras described Generation Z as ‘digital nomads’ and argued that AFL clubs are competing for attention not only against rival sports such as soccer and cricket, but against a vast range of digital content.
The challenge is particularly significant as Australia’s fastest-growing migrant communities increasingly come from countries where Australian Rules football has little historical presence.
ABS figures show the largest population increases over the past decade came from India, China, the Philippines and Nepal.
The number of Indian-born Australians alone has grown by more than 522,000 people since 2015, making it the fastest-growing overseas-born population in the country.
The issue was highlighted during the briefing through discussion of Melbourne’s western suburbs, including Tarneit, where soccer has established a stronger foothold than the AFL among newer migrant communities.
The AFL has already begun exploring ways to address those challenges.
The number of Indian Australians has shot up by more than 522,000 people over the past decade, making it the country’s fastest-growing overseas-born community
AFL officials were told demographic change presents challenges but also opportunities for the game to expand beyond its traditional supporter base
The Kerala Bombers are an Australian Rules football team from the Indian state of Kerala, and just one of the clubs involved in the development of AFL-style football in India
League executives have identified India as a potential growth market and recently outlined ambitions to increase the sport’s presence in the country.
The Western Bulldogs have also expressed interest in becoming the first AFL club to play a premiership match in India.
Bulldogs coach Luke Beveridge last week backed the proposal, saying the prospect would be an ‘exciting opportunity’ for the club and the game.
‘When you think about the Indian passion for cricket, and then the groundswell of attention that’s coming towards our game,’ he said.
‘They’ve got the grounds to be able to pull it off too. It’d be pretty exciting.’
The AFL has previously taken premiership matches overseas through ventures in New Zealand and China.
St Kilda became the first club to play regular-season matches for premiership points outside Australia when it staged games in Wellington between 2013 and 2015.
The league later expanded into China, where premiership matches were played in Shanghai between 2017 and 2019.
That included the Shanghai Cup, which brought together 19 teams from across Asia in 2019, with junior and open-age players competing at Wellington College.
The event ran alongside the AFL’s Shanghai match between St Kilda and Port Adelaide.
It gave the league a grassroots showcase in China, with music, food, community events and players from across the region taking part.
While Samaras warned the AFL about the challenges posed by demographic change, he also told officials the game’s uniquely Australian identity remained one of its strengths.
