President Trump’s new era of Middle East peace is off to a rocky start, as Iran declared Saturday it has again closed the Strait of Hormuz. But at least the Trump Administration and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps agree on the culprit—Israel.
Iran’s military command said it closed the Strait, blaming the U.S. for a “clear breach” of the memorandum of understanding. The U.S. says ships are still moving through the Strait, though hardly at the level before the war as the MOU envisions.
Tehran claims the U.S. is obliged to stop Israel from bombing Hezbollah, even as Hezbollah continues to kill Israeli soldiers and fire rockets and drones at civilians in northern Israel. Fighting calmed down on Sunday as Israel asked its military to reduce combat operations. Iran insists the MOU requires that Mr. Trump treat Israel like an American proxy, though Israel is a sovereign democracy with a duty to its citizens to stop foreign bombardment.
Perhaps Iran got this idea from listening to Mr. Trump and his Vice President. “Israel is fighting Hezbollah too long,” Mr. Trump said last week, while declaring that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “has no f— judgment” in how he responds to Hezbollah’s attacks.
JD Vance was even more threatening. “The Israelis—just like everybody else—have to respect this peace process that is fundamentally good for them and good for the entire region,” he said on Thursday. Nice of him to tell the Israelis what’s good for them.
“If I was in the cabinet of the Israeli government, I might not be attacking the only powerful ally that I have anywhere left in the entire world,” Mr. Vance added, though no Israeli cabinet member had done so. “Over the last three months, two-thirds of the defensive weapons that have protected your homeland have been built by American hands and paid for by American tax dollars.”
Is that a Joe Biden-like threat to cut off weapons sales to our ally? It sure sounds like it. It certainly is a demand that Israel accept the terms of a “peace process” that Israeli officials took no part in negotiating and hasn’t brought peace to northern Israel.
Within hours of Mr. Vance’s blunt message to Israel on Thursday, Hezbollah killed four Israeli troops. This guaranteed a retaliation, which Tehran then took as a pretext to postpone talks and threaten the Strait.
Iran orchestrates these escalations to waste time, divide the U.S. and Israel, gain leverage and win immunity for its proxies. While Mr. Trump claims the regime’s new leaders are “far less radicalized,” and Mr. Vance says they want to “turn over a new leaf,” this seems like the same old Iranian regime we know and don’t love.
All of this skirmishing suggests that Iran believes it has the whip hand under the MOU. As a precondition for a final nuclear deal, Iran will demand total Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon without disarming Hezbollah. The plan is to use this deal to squeeze Mr. Trump on the Israeli front—and all the others.
Having signed his MOU, ended his blockade of Iranian ports and eased sanctions, Mr. Trump has given away the leverage he had with Iran. On Sunday he threatened to bomb Iran again if it doesn’t control Hezbollah, but would he jeopardize the MOU to do it?
Mr. Trump now finds himself in the position of attacking the best U.S. ally in the region for defending itself. Like Barack Obama, he risks becoming an apologist for Iran. This may win him support among Mr. Vance’s friends in MAGA’s anti-Israel wing. But it risks giving away the gains of his military campaign.
Mr. Trump came into office with a chance to restore American deterrence after the feckless Biden years. But he increasingly finds himself attacking allies while apologizing for adversaries. Taiwan is scolded for wanting weapons to defend itself against Mr. Trump’s friend in Beijing, Xi Jinping. Ukraine is lectured for not knowing that Russia has all “the cards,” as Mr. Trump put it.
And now those dastardly Israelis are the scapegoat for defending themselves against Iran’s Hezbollah proxy in Lebanon. Peace through weakness never lasts for long.
