The number of people living in the Balearic Islands is set to surge within the next two decades, projections by the National Statistics Institute (INE) have revealed. The population is expected to increase from the current 1.26 million to 1.46 million by 2041. However, this increase is not predicted to come from Spanish nationals.
Most of this increase will be among the islands’ foreign population, which the INE forecasts will climb from 369,480 at present to a staggering 575,000. This, according to these estimates, would represent 39% of the total population in 2041 – the highest percentage in Spain, putting the popular holiday archipelago ahead of well-known mainland areas including Catalonia and Valencia, which are both predicted to hit 37%.
Over three-quarters of the Balearics’ population is based in Majorca alone, with the latest population figure at just under 978,500.
The projected rise would give the Balearics a larger population than Aragon, a region almost 10 times its size. To put this into perspective, the entire Balearic Islands archipelago covers roughly 1,950 square miles, similar in size to North Yorkshire, which is home to approximately 635,200 people.
The INE estimates that between 28,000 and 40,000 foreign citizens will arrive each year, a figure offset by emigration of an estimated 21,000 to 29,000.
The growth of foreigners is compounded by the fact that only 20,000 Spaniards are expected to move to the Balearics, while roughly 25,000 island residents are expected to move to other regions of Spain. The number of deaths is also expected to exceed the number of births, which are put at 11,000 and 10,000, respectively.
Overpopulation in the Balearics has become increasingly problematic and a frequently raised issue for politicians and others. Last October, Balearic President Marga Prohens said the islands “cannot assume unlimited population growth” and called for an urgent debate on population and demographic challenges.
This comes as the archipelago recorded over 19 million tourists last year, surpassing 2024’s total of 18.7 million. This figure represents approximately one in five of all international visitors to Spain. The UK and Germany continue to be the top two source markets for the region, accounting for the vast majority of international visitors.
