Former Department of Homeland Security chief of staff Miles Taylor warned the escalating instability could be explained by the “political ground shifting beneath Trump’s feet” as his approval ratings drop and congressional election losses become more likely
A former senior White House official has cautioned that the next chapter of Donald Trump’s presidency could trigger mounting global instability, suggesting that domestic political setbacks may drive the US president towards increasingly aggressive overseas action.
Miles Taylor, who served as chief of staff at the Department of Homeland Security throughout Trump’s first term, has argued that troubles on the home front could push the US president into taking more confrontational steps on the world stage.
Writing in The i, Miles warned that declining approval ratings and mounting political pressure could leave the president “distracted, embattled and very likely humiliated” following the midterm elections.
“If you thought Donald Trump had asserted himself globally this year, you ain’t seen nothin’ yet,” Miles wrote, claiming “the political ground is shifting beneath the US President’s feet” as public backing erodes and congressional defeats grow ever more probable.
He forecast four significant developments during Trump’s remaining years in office: military action against Cuba, closer ties with foreign dictators, further weakening of NATO and election interference overseas.
Miles drew on his firsthand experience within government following the 2018 midterms, when Democrats reclaimed control of the House of Representatives. He recalled senior figures being called to “secret meetings” where staff were allegedly directed to obstruct congressional oversight.
“We were told to deny information requests, delay inquiries and prepare to defy subpoenas,” he said, adding that agencies were provided with legal backing to ward off investigations. “If Democrats wanted documents in their corruption probes, they would get the middle finger.”
Miles revealed that the internal climate persuaded him to hand in his resignation, but not before he witnessed a broader pattern take shape: when restricted at home, Trump grew increasingly aggressive on the world stage, reports the Mirror US.
“With his hands tied at home, he put his foot down abroad,” Miles wrote, accusing Trump of antagonising allies while cosying up to geopolitical adversaries. He characterised the president as “a belligerent bully on the world stage.”
Among the examples he highlighted were Trump’s sudden Syria troop withdrawal following the 2018 midterms, confrontations with allies including Canada and Germany, closer ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, and the phone conversation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that later contributed to impeachment proceedings.
First, Miles cautioned about military intervention or shows of force overseas, contending that “Cuba is already on his radar” and suggesting Latin America could become a renewed priority.
“We’ve not heard the last on Greenland, either,” he added, arguing that a politically cornered president may seek to “flex military might for the sheer satisfaction of it.”
Second, Miles forecast that Trump would increasingly sideline allies in favour of building closer relationships with authoritarian leaders.
“Prepare for him to sacrifice Ukraine’s hard-fought interests to Russia without much of a fight,” he wrote, while also speculating that the president could turn a blind eye to Chinese ambitions regarding Taiwan.
Third, he predicted dramatic upheaval within US alliances, including major changes to America’s relationship with NATO. Miles suggested Trump may attempt either to undermine the alliance or replace it with “a parallel club that only the faithful are allowed to join,” centred around personal loyalty.
Finally, Miles warned that foreign elections could become a new battleground for political interference. He predicted Trump would attempt to influence allies’ domestic politics by backing ideological counterparts abroad, particularly across Europe.
“France goes to the polls in April next year for the post-Macron presidential race and Trump won’t just sit back and watch,” he wrote, while also warning about possible interference in German politics and support for “Reform UK’s efforts to steer Britain in the direction of Maga-like populism.”
Miles concluded with concerns about the end of Trump’s current term, arguing uncertainty remains over whether power would be transferred peacefully.
“He tried to remain in office illegally last time,” Miles wrote. “Any rational observer should plan for the possibility that he will try again.”
The former official suggested many Western governments are likely already preparing for a more turbulent geopolitical climate, strengthening ties with democratic allies to guard against economic, diplomatic or military disruption involving what he described as “a rogue United States”.
“It brings me no satisfaction to report that those forecasts are now proving accurate,” Miles wrote. “If anything, it’s one of my greatest disappointments as an American to tell our friends abroad that we’ve lost our step because our leader has lost his mind.”
