The Republican primary race to unseat US Representative and Israel critic Thomas Massie has become the most expensive House primary in history, with pro-Israel groups pouring millions of dollars into the contest. The election is being seen as a test case intended to warn lawmakers that criticism of Israel can cost them their seat.
According to Politico, ad spending in the Kentucky race has topped $32 million, surpassing previous House primary records. The American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), its super PAC United Democracy Project and the Republican Jewish Coalition Victory Fund have spent more than $9 million in a bid to defeat Massie, while prominent pro-Israel Republican donors have contributed millions more to a Trump-aligned super PAC supporting his challenger, former Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein.
The scale of spending has turned the contest into more than a local Republican primary. Politico described Tuesday’s vote as “a key test of the lobby’s power” inside a party where longstanding support for Israel has begun to show signs of strain, particularly among younger Republicans and “America First” conservatives opposed to foreign military aid and US entanglement in Israel’s wars.
United Democracy Project spokesperson Patrick Dorton told Politico that Massie is “the most anti-Israel Republican in the House,” adding: “This is a competitive, close primary situation. It’s always hard to defeat incumbents. … But we think there’s an opportunity here.”
The race has been framed openly by some Israel supporters as a warning to other politicians. Gabe Groisman, a former Republican Jewish Coalition board member and Florida-based donor, told Politico: “For those of us who care about these issues, ousting Massie is critical.” He added that it was “super important to build and keep a wall” so Israel-critical voices remain “outside voices and not inside voices on the floor making policy and impacting policy in Washington.”
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An operative involved in the outside effort to defeat Massie was even more explicit, telling Politico that “other ambitious politicians” may view the race and conclude that aligning with Israel critics “isn’t actually great politics.”
Massie has responded by placing the pro-Israel spending at the centre of his campaign. On X, he wrote: “After months of beating around the bush, one reporter finally writes the true story of my race and when asked, the lobbyists brag about it.” He added: “A coalition of Israel’s lobbyists and donors is spending tens of millions of dollars in a blatant attempt to buy a KY congressional seat.”
After months of beating around the bush, one reporter finally writes the true story of my race and when asked, the lobbyists brag about it.
A coalition of Israel’s lobbyists and donors is spending tens of millions of dollars in a blatant attempt to buy a KY congressional seat. https://t.co/clB3aNYSLg
— Thomas Massie for Congress (@MassieforKY) May 17, 2026
Author Nassim Nicholas Taleb also criticised the spending, writing on X: “If a lobby can buy an election, it’s not a democracy, period. And if an evil lobby can buy an election, it’s far worse than any form of autocracy. Let that sink in.”
If a lobby can buy an election, it’s not a democracy, period.
And if an evil lobby can buy an election, it’s far worse than any form of autocracy.
Let that sink in.— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) May 17, 2026
The Kentucky contest follows a pattern in which pro-Israel groups have used large-scale outside spending to target members of Congress who criticise Israel. In 2024, AIPAC’s spending arm helped defeat New York Representative Jamaal Bowman in what was then the most expensive House primary in US history. Axios reported that the Kentucky race had already surpassed that record earlier this month, with AdImpact tracking more than $25.6 million in spending at that stage.
Politico reported that AIPAC’s United Democracy Project has spent nearly $5 million attacking Massie, while the Republican Jewish Coalition Victory Fund has spent more than $4 million. Their ads have targeted his opposition to resolutions backing Israel as well as his votes against military aid to the apartheid state.
Massie, who presents himself as a fiscal conservative opposed to all foreign aid, has argued that his position is consistent and not limited to Israel. “Does Israel have the right to exist? Every country has a right to exist,” he told Politico, before asking: “Why do you need 30 resolutions on the floor of the House to support Israel?”
In the closing days of the campaign, Massie escalated his criticism by introducing legislation that would require AIPAC to register under the Foreign Agents Registration Act, accusing the group of “lobbying and acting on behalf of the interests of Israel.”
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