US President Trump’s “humanitarian” attempt to free 2,000 Gulf ships met by claimed Iranian missile attack as both sides try to breach crippling Strait of Hormuz stalemate
At a cost of close to £1 billion a-day the US military action in the Middle East is hitting the US whichever way you look at it.
It is crippling President Donald Trump politically, militarily and at every turn Tehran is out-manoeuvring The White House’s incoherent war. And now Iran’s targeting of US Navy warships in response to Trump’s ‘humanitarian operation’ to free up the Strait of Hormuz is a major next move.
It seems Iran did not hit a US Navy warship as claimed but likely targeted one, further costing war-planners hundreds of thousands in surface to air defence missiles. At the very least it was a warning shot across the bows of the US military but crucially a major two finger gesture at Donald Trump’s “Project Freedom” to free the Strait.
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And it was also a gesture of following through with its threat to react with an attack if the US navy tries to escort stranded merchant vessels struck in the Gulf. It appears the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps are not going to allow American forces to enter the Strait, no matter how the operation is dressed up.
Even the US mission name Project Freedom is a major climb-down from the typically hawkish name given to the Iran attack mission of Operation Epic Fury. The conflict is hitting the pockets of everybody in the west, particularly British consumers, with rising oil charges, threats to international flights and now airport jobs.
But it also knows that preceding this conflict were months of uprisings and demonstrations threatening the future existence of the regime. Executions are at an all-time high, thousands of people are being arrested and 30% of its people are surviving in abject poverty.
Nothing has been done by this conflict to help Iranians, despite the promises help was ‘on its way/ by Donald Trump. And Iran’s regime is sending a signal that no matter how Trump tries to sell his military action it will not work and his administration is in desperate need of an off-ramp.
Tehran’s regime is, according to the Institute For the Study of War, demanding a settlement which includes delayed talks on its nuclear programme. Its counter-proposal seeks a swift end to the war which has no doubt devastated Iran’s military but has not diluted its appetite for defying Trump’s bellicose demands.
It wants a mutual ‘guarantee of non-aggression,’ and end to the US blockade on Iranian ports in exchange for re-opening the Strait of Hormuz, compensation and the withdrawal of US forces from close to Iranian waters. It also wants to discuss the nuclear debate at a later date, without making firm commitments towards ending the atomic programme and there are sanctions relief demands.
Increasingly it is becoming difficult to imagine Trump not accepting an off-ramp and behind closed doors back-channelled negotiations are intense. The problem is that Donald Trump may have to accept leaving the Gulf in exchange for opening up the Strait of Hormuz, knowing it could be closed again at any time.
And the British military will have to become further involved in protecting shipping in the Gulf region even after a settlement is reached.
