Russia could be ready to attack NATO within a year of the war in Ukraine ending, Dutch military intelligence agency MIVD has warned in a shock annual report
Russia could be ready to launch a conflict with NATO within a year of the war in Ukraine ending, according to a European spy agency.
The Netherlands Military Intelligence and Security Service (MIVD) warned that Moscow may be able to rebuild enough combat power within 12 months of hostilities ending in Ukraine – with the aim of sowing division inside the alliance.
Vice Admiral Peter Reesink, the spy agency’s director, said: “Russia poses the greatest and most direct threat to peace and stability in Europe, and thus to our national security and our interests.”
However, the MIVD stressed that a full-scale conventional war between Russia and NATO is “virtually out of the question” while Moscow remains heavily engaged in Ukraine.
Instead, the report suggests Russia’s broader strategy is to reshape Europe’s security order and push towards a more multipolar world where it stands as a leading global power.
Rather than attempting to defeat NATO outright, the agency warned Moscow could focus on limited territorial gains and pressure tactics designed to expose divisions between member states. The intelligence agency suggested this could even include the threat of using nuclear weapons.
The MIVD warned that deteriorating relations between Western nations have left Europe increasingly vulnerable, particularly “where rules become blurred and power becomes increasingly determinant”.
It further noted that Russia’s deployment of tactics short of outright warfare, including cyberattacks, sabotage and covert operations, creates “a real risk of unintended and therefore difficult-to-control escalation”.
The agency estimated that Russia has suffered around 1.2 million permanent casualties since 2022, including more than 500,000 deaths.
Despite sustaining significant losses in Ukraine, the report said that Russia has pressed ahead with expanding its armed forces by enlisting and training additional personnel, ramping up weapons production and building up ammunition stockpiles.
The report said: “The Russian armed forces have not only grown larger but have also become more effective than before the war in Ukraine.”
According to the MIVD, Russia has made substantial improvements across several areas, including drones, battlefield command systems and the capacity to swiftly incorporate lessons learnt from combat operations in Ukraine.
The report said Russia has become more confident in its ability to strike military and civilian targets in the West due to its military collaboration with China.
Vice Admiral Reesink said China’s cyber operations are “very capable, and they are organised in a very complex way”, adding: “We are vulnerable and we’re not always capable of seeing all the threats China produces.”
The MIVD also warned of a renewed nuclear arms race driven by China’s growing nuclear arsenal, weakening arms control agreements and rapid advances in artificial intelligence and quantum computing.
