The ‘fragile’ 14-day ceasefire, as termed by US Vice President JD Vance, between the United States and Iran is set to end tomorrow, April 22. What happens when it expires? Will the war resume? Could Gulf countries come under attack again, and will the Strait of Hormuz be blocked for a third time?
According to an Axios report, the US Vice President is flying to Pakistan on Tuesday, a day before the ceasefire expires, for possible talks involving Iran. Much depends on these discussions—but only if Iran agrees to engage. However, a post by Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s Parliament Speaker, suggests otherwise. Ghalibaf indicated that Iran may not be ready for talks and hinted at preparedness for a second phase of the war if required.
“(Donald) Trump, by imposing a siege and violating the ceasefire, seeks to turn this negotiating table—in his own imagination—into a table of surrender or to justify renewed warmongering. We do not accept negotiations under the shadow of threats, and in the past two weeks, we have prepared to reveal new cards on the battlefield,” Ghalibaf wrote on X.
Iran appears reluctant to return to negotiations for two main reasons: it claims the US violated the ceasefire agreement, and its own demands for a deal remain far apart from Washington’s position.
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What are Iran’s demands?
According to Iranian state media, Tehran proposed a 10-point framework, reportedly accepted in principle by the US, as a basis for a temporary ceasefire and eventual peace deal. The proposal includes: A non-aggression pact between Washington and Tehran, continued Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz, recognition of Iran’s nuclear enrichment rights, lifting of all primary US sanctions, removal of secondary sanctions affecting third-party countries, termination of UN Security Council and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board resolutions against Iran, compensation to Iran for damages, withdrawal of US combat forces from the region and a halt to hostilities across all fronts, including involving Iran-backed groups like Hezbollah.
The proposal also linked a broader ceasefire to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran had stated it would not reopen the Strait until Israel stopped targeting Lebanon. After that condition was met, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced the reopening of Hormuz.
What does the US want?
The US described Iran’s proposal as “a workable basis” for negotiations. However, the Trump administration made it clear that any deal would depend on Iran accepting key American conditions.
While the exact details of the 15 demands made by Washington to Iran are not known, a CNN report citing officials familiar with the matter outlines some key conditions: A commitment from Iran to not develop nuclear weapons, transfer of its highly enriched uranium, limits on Tehran’s defense capabilities, an end to its support for regional proxy groups, ensuring the Strait of Hormuz remains open.
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While Hormuz is currently open, Tehran termed these demands as ‘excessive, unrealistic, and unreasonable’.
The Israel–Lebanon factor
One of Iran’s major reasons for avoiding talks with the US has been Israel’s continued strikes in Lebanon. Israel maintains it is targeting Hezbollah infrastructure, but over 2,000 people had reportedly been killed in Lebanon as of April 17.
Former US President Donald Trump claims to have mediated a temporary 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, with the possibility of future talks between the two sides.
The US-Iran conflict and Israel’s actions in Lebanon are closely linked. Following US strikes on Iran, Tehran adopted a three-pronged strategy: Blocking the Strait of Hormuz to exert economic pressure globally, targeting US-backed Gulf countries and American bases, and activating Hezbollah in Lebanon to widen the conflict.
Lebanon has borne heavy civilian casualties, even though Hezbollah is not formally part of its military. The ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon came with conditions: Lebanon would work to prevent Hezbollah attacks on Israel, while Israel retained the right to act against imminent threats. Lebanon, in turn, emphasised that its national security forces have sole responsibility for the country’s security.
What next?
Any second round of talks—if they happen—will depend heavily on three factors: Whether the Israel–Hezbollah conflict in Lebanon remains contained, progress on nuclear and uranium-related issues, and the status of the Strait of Hormuz blockade.
