As the Strait of Hormuz crisis deepens Washington is facing politically damaging decision to agree to an Iran nuke deal that trump will feel is too close to the Obama deal he tore up in the first place
Washington is hoping Iran will agree to stall nuclear development for ten to 15 years in peace talks – but this would look similar to the nuke deal struck by President Obama.
An ‘unsettled’ White House is thrashing out the possibility that even such a nuclear agreement to end the Iran war would mean an obvious climb-down to America’s original position.
And US President Donald Trump, according to a senior Middle East expert, may not to agree as that would be damaging even beyond the political nightmare the war has already caused. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action – JCPOA – AKA “the Iran Deal” was an agreement to limit the Iranian nuclear programme that was torn up by Trump. And further leverage is likely to be imposed by Iran on the US in terms of using the Yemeni Houthis to apply pressure on the Baba al-Mandeb passage, which is now being used.
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Former CIA and State Department consultant Dr Ilan Bergman, senior Vice President at the American Foreign Policy Council told the Daily Mirror: “The shifting political messaging that’s coming out of the White House from President Trump has been very variable.. Back in January, when you saw that revolt in Iran in which the regime responded by killing something like 36,000 opposition protesters, you heard from the White House that America was there and help was on the way.
“America was going to help Iranians liberate their country. We are long past that conversation. In fact, the President is doubling down on the idea that regime change has already occurred, which terribly, it has not because the system is still intact. Where the political conversation is right now is whether or not the current Iran leadership is prepared to do a deal with regard to we are not even now, at this point, talking about a permanent cessation of Iran’s uranium enrichment.
“The administration is increasingly talking about a time delay of something like 20 years and the Iranians have countered with five years. I think we know that where they’re going to settle is somewhere between ten and 15 years, and also a rollback of Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal and Iran’s proxy network.
“The political problem that you have is the fact that, first of all, this sort of settlement looks an awful lot like the 2015 nuclear deal hammered out by President Obama, which President Trump, in his first term, abrogated because he said it was the worst deal ever. So it creates political problems for him, and also because we are pretty close chronologically to the US midterm elections. If the president hammers out a deal in which America looks like a loser, I think it rebounds very poorly for him at the ballot box.”
Currently the key oil trade waterway the Strait of Hormuz is blocked by Iran and blockaded by the United States Navy, which is turning Iran’s shipping back. Latest talks on a peace deal have fallen through and the April 8 two week ceasefire ends on April 22 with the possibility hostilities will start again.
There are also increasing fears Iran’s proxy force the Houthis in Yemen could become involved and help further block shipping with attempts to do so on the Baba al-Mandeb straight. This is a strategic link between the Indian Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea via the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. Most exports of petroleum and natural gas from the Persian Gulf that transit the Suez Canal or the SUMED Pipeline pass through both the Bab el-Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz.
Dr Ilan added: “The Saudis activated the East West pipeline, which is a pipeline that runs across Saudi territory and dumps out into the Red Sea, into the Bab al Mandeb. Traffic has been pretty significantly diverted away from the Strait of Hormuz towards this other maritime choke point. But that maritime choke point also is where Yemen is located and where the Houthis, are located.
“And so if you’re Iran, and you understand that, you know, the Americans are trying to take away your trump card in terms of leverage, what you’ll be looking for is additional leverage. So I actually expect the Houthis to become a bigger problem potentially in the future that are going to require a more resolute response than we’ve seen up until this point.”
