Unlike Manchester City, Manchester United and Chelsea, Aston Villa can win a European trophy this season and have performed better than Chelsea and Liverpool in the Premier League. So why do many fans feel as though their club are forever walking a tightrope?
Even though their title challenge faded when their best midfielders got injured in the winter, Villa still have two routes into next season’s Champions League.
Overcoming Bologna in the Europa League, with the first leg in Italy on Thursday, will take boss Unai Emery a step closer to his fifth title in this competition, which would also secure a Champions League spot for Villa. The top five in the Premier League will also get the golden ticket and Villa are currently fourth, six points clear of sixth-placed Chelsea with seven matches to play.
Villa know that if they fall short both at home and in Europe, a great deal is likely to change. But regardless of where they finish, Villa are already under pressure to sell this summer to comply with spending rules. Without the guarantee of another year’s Champions League revenue, the picture could become bleaker.
If ever there were a case for UEFA and the Premier League to examine their financial regulations, it is Villa’s. Since Emery took charge in autumn 2022, only Wolves, Brentford, Brighton and Everton have a lower net spend than Villa’s £73.5million. In that time, the six wealthiest clubs have a combined net spend of £2.6billion, with both Chelsea and Arsenal splashing out more than £500m.
For every Premier League point Villa have earned in the Emery era, they have spent a little more than £300,000. In that period, Chelsea have spent nearly £2.6m per point and Tottenham £2.4m. Yet if Spurs avoid relegation this season, Villa will still be under greater financial pressure than they will.
If ever there were a case for UEFA and the Premier League to examine their financial regulations, it is Aston Villa’s
From next season, Premier League clubs will be allowed to spend a maximum of 85 per cent of revenue on ‘squad costs’ – wages, transfers and agents fees. According to the Deloitte Money League, since the 2022-23 season, Villa have generated about £1.06bn in total in commercial, broadcast and matchday revenue.
Of the Big Six, Chelsea generated the lowest number (£1.99bn). Manchester United’s kit deal with adidas alone is worth about £900m – a figure their fellow adidas clients Villa could only dream of. No wonder Villa feel the current rules are designed to reward commercial performance off the pitch more than victories on it.
Emery’s coaching has been outstanding but unfortunately, Villa’s work in the transfer market has not. In the last two transfer windows, only Chelsea spent more on agent fees than Villa’s £38m and Emery’s starting XI has not improved in that time.
Like many rivals, Villa are scrambling for a new front-of-shirt sponsor for next season, as Premier League clubs will no longer carry betting logos in that spot.
The wage bill has grown hugely during Emery’s tenure, too, with a far larger backroom team and big pay rises for all the main players. Management of risk has, at times, been jaw-dropping. Again, though, there is mitigation.
It is easy to argue that Villa ‘should be more like Brentford or Brighton’ but Villa are a much bigger club than either – they have spent more seasons in the top flight (112) than any club bar Everton (123), and Brentford and Brighton’s combined number (22) wouldn’t even match Villa’s total for this century.
If Villa’s transfer policy were to sign only little-known prospects from beyond Europe’s top five leagues, it is unlikely they would have been able to hire Emery in the first place. The 54-year-old probably has too much control over Villa’s transfer policy yet without it, would he even have accepted the job?
If Villa do qualify for the European Cup, that would be twice in three seasons, as many as they had managed in their 150-year history before that.
Unai Emery’s coaching has been outstanding but unfortunately, Villa’s work in the transfer market has not
Last term, a huge refereeing mistake cost them at Old Trafford, when Morgan Rogers’ goal was wrongly ruled out. Manchester United went on to win 2-0 and Villa missed out on the top five on goal difference.
Two out of three would be an incredible achievement and this is where it feels Villa are in an unfair fight. This consistency should be the launch pad for the club to join the elite. Instead, they are having to go at full pelt simply to stand still.
There will certainly be interest in Rogers this summer, especially if he has a strong World Cup with England. Arsenal, Manchester United and Chelsea are believed to have shown an interest while Paris Saint-Germain are also admirers.
Though Rogers is not pushing actively to leave Villa, it is thought the 23-year-old is ambitious to play every season in the Champions League and would consider a change of scene. Villa should be able to keep players like these yet in the current climate, selling them is the easiest way for them to stick to the rules.
Few would argue that football can live without financial controls. Yet fewer still would agree they were designed to have this outcome.
They should be there to ensure that unscrupulous owners cannot spend money they do not have before departing at the first sign of trouble, leaving a mess that takes years to clean up.
During close to eight years in charge, Villa’s owners have demonstrated their seriousness and commitment. They have transformed Villa from a club drifting in the Championship into one who ran eventual winners Paris Saint-Germain close in last season’s Champions League quarter-finals.
They sold academy product Jack Grealish for a record £100m and hired one of Europe’s best coaches. They are frustrated they cannot push on again.
Morgan Rogers wants to play in the Champions League every season – and has a World Cup this summer that could be a shop window for Europe’s biggest clubs
Villa are pushing to reach a third major semi-final in as many seasons – but instead of being a sign that they are here to stay, they will have to continue their juggling act this summer
Under Emery, Villa have reached two semi-finals, in the FA Cup last season and the Conference League in 2024. A third would be another fine effort and they will be favourites against Bologna, who beat fellow Italians Roma impressively in the last round but are only eighth in Serie A. They also lost to Villa in the league phase, and last season in the Champions League.
All of this – not to mention a first major trophy for 30 years – should confirm that Villa are here to stay.
Instead, while others who have performed worse spend heavily again this summer, Villa will engage in another juggling act. They are playing by different rules and it is about time somebody tweaked them.
